A "New Sunbelt," "Melting Pot," "Heartland" View of America

How do we best understand the pieces of today’s America? We can see it as market segments--8.2 million census blocks, divided into 126 ethnic subgroups subdivided by a table with 198 income and age cells, with additions such as age of home, year occupied, etc. Or we can more simply view the U.S. as four regions—Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Or as Sunbelt and Rustbelt. Or as the coasts and “flyover” states. Or as Red and Blue states.

William Frey took a crack at explaining the country in his “Three America’s: The Rising Significance of Regions” (Journal of the American Planning Association, Fall 2002). Frey divides the country into three regions that correspond to a city with 40% of the nation's people, which he calls the “Melting Pot,” a suburb with 20% of our population, his “New Sunbelt”, and a rural area with the remaining 40% labeled the “Heartland.” People in the regions are more alike than they are like those in other regions, meaning a city dweller in the "New Sunbelt" is more like a rural resident of the same region than a "Melting Pot" city dweller.

Frey’s suburb, his “New Sunbelt” states (Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Colorado, Oregon, Washington, Idaho, Tennessee, Delaware, Virginia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia), make up the fastest-growing region, fueled by white and black families fleeing the other regions along with rapidly-rising numbers of younger, well-off elderly. Ozzie and Harriet families (married w/children) are declining nationally, yet nine of the ten states where they are growing are “New Sunbelt” states. The region added seven congressional seats in 2002, versus five total for California, Texas, and Florida.

The “Melting Pot,” Frey's city (California, Texas, New York, Florida, Illinois, New Jersey, New Mexico, Hawaii, Alaska), grows primarily through immigration. It is home to three-fourths of America’s Asians and Hispanics, our current immigrant base, and the region’s suburbs are nearly as mixed as its cities. Meanwhile the region’s white population is declining (except in Texas, Florida, New Mexico, and Alaska)--in the 1990’s 3.3 million more people moved out of the region to other states than moved in.

The “Heartland” (the other 29 states and District of Columbia) is Frey’s rural area, lagging in population growth. It is dominated by white people (plus blacks in its industrial cities), by people who were born in-state, and by increasingly gray Baby Boomers. The region contains several swing states, meaning its aging, white, more blue-collar population’s concerns will shape the nation’s agenda.