Friday, September 07, 2007

Iraq: KIA Down on Eve of Petraeus Report


Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 80
August: 52

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.10 (Revised downward, 1/07)
actual: 1.71 (8/07)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,340 (8/07)

Since our last monthly report, the American KIA total dropped from July's 63 down to 52. That KIA total is the lowest since July 2006, and represents a 56% drop from May's 117. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] In the midst of the surge, which should produce rising KIA totals, the low American KIA total for August hints the surge may be going well partly because al-Qaeda truly is hurting, and therefore is unable to kill Americans as effectively as before. We'll see what happens during September.

Oil output dropped sharply from July's 2.06 million barrels a day average to its lowest average since January. Electricity output during August's heat rose to another 2007 high, but remained below August 2006's average output of 4,440 megawatts.

By consensus, Iraq's political situation has yet to reflect the good news generated by the U.S.-led military effort. We will know more after Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Ryan Crocker report to Congress next week.

No comments: