Iraq Measurements Decline Slightly

Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:




Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 63
2008: 34
January: 34

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
1970: 413
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.20 (Revised upward, 1/08)
actual: 2.23 (1/08)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,010 (1/08)

Since our last monthly report, the monthly American KIA total has doubled from December's 17, yet it remains only half the monthly rate of 2 a day sustained for most of the Iraq war. And the KIA total over the past five months averages under 30. The last time any five-month average stayed under 30 KIA was June-October 2003, early in the war. In a further sign of changing times, no Americans have died in helicopter crashes since September. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.]

Our other indicators also show deterioration from December. Oil output dropped from 2.42 to 2.23 million barrels a day, but remains above the target revised upward last month to 2.2 million bbls/day. Revenue from oil exports continues to rise, and January's total was the second highest on record. As for electricity, output also dropped from December--going from 4,240 megawatts down to 4,010 megawatts. Yet the string of months during which electricity has remained above 4,000 megawatts extended to an unprecedented eight. Previously, the longest such streak was five months.

In January, the al-Maliki government achieved one of the three key benchmarks set out for it a year earlier when parliament passed a de-Baathification law that allows many Sunni ex-officials back into government. The other two measures--sharing oil revenue and sending political power to local authorities--are de facto already underway.