2008 is not 2006.

Bush continues to suffer a low presidential approval rating, just 31% according to Gallup. His approval is below the 37% rating he had in 2006, when Bush’s poor performance figured importantly in the Democrats’ crushing congressional election victory. Bush’s tenure worked against Republicans in 2006, and continues to do so in 2008.

Yet there are important differences. First, Iraq. The war there had gone badly for the U.S. during most of 2003-06 (2005 with three free elections had been a good year), and in late 2006, the bipartisan Iraq Study Commission issued a report paving the road to noble defeat. Two months later, as Bush rejected defeat in favor of his surge, Barack Obama told us, “I am not persuaded that 20,000 additional troops in Iraq is going to solve the sectarian violence there; in fact, I think it'll do the reverse.” How much has changed since.

Second, there’s the performance of Congress. In 2006, the country was tired of the congressional Republicans, in power for 12 years, and personified by the Mark Foley scandal. Now Democrats run an unloved Congress that can’t seem to do anything about the high cost of energy, with Democrats refusing to drill for U.S. oil offshore. The people want offshore drilling. Will offshore drilling as a congressional issue in 2008 rival the 2006 Mark Foley scandal, even if gas prices drop? Hard to tell.

Working for Democrats in 2008: continued bad economic news, high gas prices and recession or not. In 2006, the economy wasn’t an issue. This year it is.