Republicans and the Hispanic Vote

Ron Brownstein in the National Journal makes the case for Republicans becoming a permanent minority. He breaks the electorate into six groups: whites with college degrees, non-degree whites, African-Americans, Hispanics, Asians, and other minorities. Asians and other minorities make up 7% of the population and 4% of voters. That figure will grow to 11% of the population by 2040, and the black population will remain roughly at its current 13%.

Brownstein knows, but doesn’t say, that the Democrats’ share of the black vote hit its all-time high this past year. We won’t necessarily see the same percentage or turnout for a post-Obama Democrat. The same goes for Asians and other minorities—64% voted for the first ever non-white nominee for president, and will be less race-influenced in post-Obama elections.

Whites accounted for 74% of the 2008 vote. The 35% of the white vote that’s college educated went 53% for McCain; those without college degrees voted 58% for McCain. Naturally, the non-college section of the white population shrinks over time, while the white share with college degrees, though growing relative to the non-college share, only retains its percentage of the total population. Overall, whites are currently two-thirds of the entire population, but drop to 51% by 2040. So the GOP total vote share is demographically challenged.

Hispanics will grow more powerful with each subsequent election. By 2040, they will be 25% of the population. That’s bad news for Republicans, because in 2008, Hispanics went 67% for Obama. Roll Call’s Mort Kondracke believes congressional Republican opposition to immigration reform—many Republicans, following talk radio's lead, attacked Bush’s reform measure as amnesty—punctuated by the Bush administration’s toughened enforcement of existing immigration law and improved border controls, resulted in the Democratic share of the Hispanic vote growing by 11% between 2004 and 2008, and the total Latino vote jumping by 40%. Though Obama attacked Bush’s toughened enforcement, Democrats may have trouble in a down economy boosting pro-immigration measures that enlarge the number of people chasing ever scarcer jobs.

The Hispanic vote remains in play, with the only certainty its growing importance.