Saturday, August 06, 2011

Jobs: surface gains, deep troubles continue.

Economist Heather Boushey of the progressive Center for American Progress writes July’s jobs report produced a positive headline: jobs up 117,000, May and June totals revised upward by 56,000, the unemployment rate down from 9.2% to 9.1%. The Dow responded accordingly, up 61 points from Thursday.

Nevertheless, the Dow, S&P 500 and the NASDAQ all fell massively over the Thursday-Friday combined period, with the total of a Dow at 11,445, an S&P of 1,199, and a NASDAQ at 2,532 reaching just 15,176. That means the FOX Index (which measures “healthy” as a Dow of 12,000, an S&P of 1,300 and a NASDAQ of 2,500—total 15,800) is deeper in “unhealthy” territory at minus -624 (see chart).

Despite the positive job growth headline, Boushey is negative about the current jobs picture. She notes the share of Americans at work fell to 58.1%, lower than at any other point in 28 years; the share of adult men with a job fell to 66.7%, and prior to the Great Recession, that share had never fallen below its previous low of 70.5% in 1983; the share of adult women with a job was 54.9% in July, up slightly from 54.8% in June, its lowest level in eight years; temporary help, a leading indicator firms may hire, added no new jobs in July with little change over 2011; hours of work and overtime were flat in July, at the same level as they have been for months, indicating employers feel no pressure to hire; though the unemployment rate fell to 9.1%, this is the 25th month the rate has been at or above 9%, a post-war era record; nearly 7 million workers are out of the labor force so are uncounted, but currently want a job; long-term unemployed — actively searching for work for at least six months — are at 44.4% of total unemployed, only slightly below all-time highs; wages are failing to keep pace with inflation, with wage growth at 2.8% in July against an inflation rate of 3.4%.

Each month, we measure Obama’s employment record against two benchmarks that will be important in November 2012—the unemployment rate and the number of jobs in January 2009, when Obama took office. Here’s the chart measuring his progress:

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