Superpower of One (Part 1)

China’s power is changing the world. Look at the above chart. It’s based upon Eclipse, a new book by Arvind Subramanian of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. Subramanian writes China will account for over 23% of world GDP by 2030, with America accounting for less than 12%. China will dominate trade, with twice America’s share of imports and exports, outpacing the U.S. not only because its own economy will grow faster, but also because its neighbors will grow faster than America’s neighbors.

Subramanian’s assumptions are actually conservative, projecting China’s per-person income will grow by only 5.5% a year over the next two decades, 3.3% slower than the past 20 years. Subramanian has found that after Japan, Hong Kong, Germany, Spain, Taiwan, Greece, and South Korea developed to a stage comparable to today’s China, they all grew faster than 5.5% per head over the subsequent 20 years.

Whatever China’s growth rate, the U.S. is already making room for the world’s single Superpower. Word comes that, as we wrote earlier, the U.S. has decided not to sell Taiwan the advanced F-16 fighters the island feels it needs. Many in the U.S. believe Taiwan should be able to buy the F-16s. Sen. Richard G. Lugar (R-IN), ranking Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for example, earlier called for the F-16 sale, saying Taiwan’s defense needs are legitimate, and its “existing capabilities are decaying.”

One sign of how sharply the U.S. is breaking with its previous defense of Taiwan’s right to peaceful reunification with China comes from the Financial Times (U.K.). The paper reports that last week, a “senior US official” warned that Tsai Ing-wen, the Taiwan Democratic Progressive party (opposition) leader who was visiting Washington, had sparked concerns about “stability” in the Taiwan Strait, an area the official called “critically important” to the U.S. “She left us with distinct doubts about whether she is both willing and able to continue the stability in cross-Strait relations the region has enjoyed in recent years,” the official said.

The “senior official’s” on-the-record comments constitute blatant U.S. interference in Taiwan’s internal affairs. An election in which Tsai is the leading candidate against current Taiwan leader Ma Ying-jeou is just 4 months away. By openly siding with China-friendly Ma against Tsai while simultaneously declining to sell F-16s to Taiwan, the U.S. is letting China know that whatever tensions China’s rising power brings to U.S.-China relations, they will no longer revolve around Taiwan.