Saturday, November 16, 2013

Obama in a bad place.

“I am not a crook.”

--Richard Nixon (11.17.73)  

"the game’s not over.”

--Barack Obama (11.14.13)

We are watching Obama’s approval/disapproval ratings in the “RealClearPolitics” averages hit all-time lows.

November 5 was the year anniversary of election eve 2012, the day before the president’s amazing 5-million-vote triumph over Mitt Romney. Prior to this November 5, Obama’s 4 year-9 months presidency had experienced net approval ratings below -9% for only a grand total of 9 days, all in 2011 when voters were mad at both Obama and Congress for their debt ceiling fights. At that time, Obama spent 2 days below -10% at -10.2%, his previous all-time low rating.

Starting November 5, 2013, Obama’s ratings have been below -9% for 11 days, below -10% for 9 days, below -11% for 7 days, and below -12% 3 days, including his all-time worst day November 13, when his disapproval rating exceeded his approval rating by -13%. And the trend remains downward, standing at -12.9% yesterday. He will surely recover somewhat, but will he ever return to the positive ratings he last enjoyed June 7?

"President Obama's job approval rating has fallen to the level of former President George W. Bush at the same period of his Presidency," said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. A year later under the weakened Bush--November 7, 2006--Republicans lost their House and Senate majority, dropping 30 and 6 seats, respectively.

Sean Trende, the “RealClearPolitics” numbers guy, writes:
if Obama’s job approval is 40% on Election Day, [Democratic] gains would be unlikely, and losses in the low double digits -- perhaps even as many as the 20 or so seats that would accompany losing 11% of their caucus. . . would be plausible. Of course, [t]he big game is in the Senate. In 2014, there will be 7 Democratic seats up for re-election in states that were more Republican than the country [over] the last two presidential elections.
In the National Journal, Alex Roarty has found that presidents whose approval plummets in their second term don't recover. "In fact, no president in the last 60 years has watched his approval ratings bounce back during their second term."

And Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank, a “Skull and Bones” Yale grad once declared persona non grata by the Bush White House, has just written, “on the . . . question of whether Obama can rebuild an effective presidency after this debacle, it’s starting to look as if it may be game over.”

Milbank’s column is a further indication the Washington establishment is separating itself from a damaged administration.

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