Thursday, July 10, 2008

Fact – (No Source) = Factoid.

In an article about pollution in China, the New Republic dropped in this eye-popping statement: “Sixteen of the 20 dirtiest cities in the world are in China.” No source, but hey, the New Republic is just a popular journal.

To find the cities listed, I went for the source. What follows is my search free of any reference to dates, though the New Republic piece did just come out.

“Voice of America” told me, “The Worldwatch Institute in Washington says 16 of the world's 20 most polluted cities are in China.” And sure enough, at Worldwatch’s site, I found the statement, “Globally, China is home to 16 of the 20 cities with the most polluted air.” But Worldwatch offered no source or study, even though a “China Watch” features prominently at its website. Since Lester Brown’s outfit is a press-friendly operation focused on getting media attention for environmental issues, I wasn’t totally surprised they offered up the eye-catching “16 of 20” sentence with no source to back it. Maybe they simply read it somewhere else?

In TIME for example? TIME oddly had the same statement as Worldwatch, but attributed it not to Worldwatch but to the World Bank, saying, “the World Bank has reported that 16 of the 20 most polluted cities in the world are Chinese.”

OK, now the World Bank's a credible source, a UN heavyweight that puts out lots of hard facts. So I went to the Bank. And in their “China Quick Facts,” sure enough appeared this similar, but slightly different, sentence, “And China has 20 of the world's 30 most polluted cities, largely due to high coal use and motorization.”

Where did that sentence come from? I searched the World Bank site. No study. No source. Just other writings using the same “fact”. Is the World Bank just another part of an echo chamber passing around the same undocumented factoid?

I don’t know. Maybe such a study exists. But I have my doubts, especially after finding Scientific American had published a study done by the Blacksmith Institute that lists the world’s 10 most polluted cities. Topping the list: Sumqayit in Azerbaijan. The top Chinese city, Linfen in Shanxi [pictured], ranks 6th, and Tianying in Anhui is 9th. Four other Chinese cities are in Blacksmith’s “Dirty Thirty”, making Chinese cities 6 of 30. Not good, but not 10 of 30 like the former USSR’s most polluted, and certainly not 20 of 30 or 16 of 20.

Whom can you trust?

Tuesday, July 08, 2008

A Woman Vice President

Marie Cocco is an ex-Clinton supporter who writes for the Washington Post. She is unhappy with Obama because Clinton’s former opponent has shifted so far to the right he threatens to go off the rails on abortion. Cocco first chastises Obama for “unnecessarily” endorsing Bush's faith-based initiative, which she brands “a sort of patronage program that rewards religious activists for their political support with public grants.” Cocco then hits Obama for declaring "I let Jesus Christ into my life," saying Bush already saw that as an Oval Office qualification, and “look where that's gotten us.” So when Cocco hears Obama now opposes late-term abortions granted because the woman is “feeling blue,” Cocco proclaims it makes her “see red.”

Obama doesn’t need Cocco; she’ll vote for him anyway. But he doesn’t want women drawn to a GOP ticket with a woman on it, women affected by his long, drawn-out battle with the female they thought would be America’s next president. I think if Obama picks a white male for vice president, McCain will certainly go for a woman, such as fired Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina [pictured]. Fiorina is on top of her game economically at a time the economy is the issue. She is also Catholic and against abortion. She adds (relative) youth, vigor, pizzazz, and competence to McCain’s ticket.

Obama, who picks first, has to weigh seriously the prospect of McCain selecting a woman. 2008’s excitement came from him and from Clinton— both of them. Let the Republicans have a woman, and he gives away part of the primary excitement he generated. Obama’s solution: put a woman on his ticket. Why not Kathleen Sebelius [pictured] of Kansas, the very state Hawaii born-and-raised Obama claims as his “home” (his grandparents were from Kansas)? Sebelius is Catholic, pro-abortion, daughter of former Ohio governor John Gilligan with plenty of family and friends still in Ohio. So Obama from Hawaii gets white, Midwestern roots with Kansas, and Kansas’ Sebelius brings along Ohio, and other industrial state Catholics. If Obama is really lucky, McCain will counter by picking a dull white male, leaving Obama a corner on the excitement market without having had to bring Clintons into the White House at all.

A smart McCain will go ahead and pick a woman anyway.

Monday, July 07, 2008

Iraq Improvement Continues


Here is our latest monthly highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 63
2008: 29
June: 19

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
1970: 413
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.20 (Revised upward, 1/08)
actual: 2.51 (6/08)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,470 (6/08)

Since our last monthly report, the monthly American KIA total rose slightly from 15 in May to 19, still low enough to drop the monthly average for 2008 down to 29, the lowest monthly average for any Iraq war year. Since September 2007, a period of 10 months, the KIA total for any month has stayed below 50, averaging just 26. The longest previous stretch for such low KIA totals was 6 months in 2003. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] In the most important measure for Americans, statistics show continued improvement.

In June, oil output rose from 2.50 to 2.51 million barrels a day, equaling the highest monthly total ever. Revenue from oil exports continues to hit all-time highs, with May's total the highest on record by $1 billion (June's total will grow with later sales figures added). As with oil, output for electricity increased, growing from 4,130 megawatts in May to 4,470 megawatts in June, the highest for any June since the war began and the third highest monthly total ever. Electricity output in the 4,000-4,500 megawatt range is significant because Iraq needs 8,500 megawatts to meet its demand, and gets up to 4,500 megawatts from privately-owned generators.

On the political front, the White House reported--responding to a congressional request--that the Iraqi government has made "satisfactory progress" on 15 of the 18 benchmarks laid out for the Maliki government in March 2007.

Friday, July 04, 2008

A Hopeful Fourth (for Media)

David Broader looks out from his Washington Post perch and finds a restive American right. He quotes from a Lynde and Harry Bradley Foundation tract, which “sees a real threat in such things as multilingual ballots and bilingual classes. Such accommodations to the growing diversity of the population could lead to ‘many Americas, or even no America at all. . .Historical ignorance, civic neglect and social fragmentation might achieve what a foreign invader could not.’" Broader calls this all an “unwarranted” degree of pessimism.

Broader is more optimistic. He finds “plenty of vitality” in the American system. After all, “young people. . . found their way to the polling places in record numbers this year and joined enthusiastically in many campaigns.” Well, certainly in one campaign. Broader, like Michelle Obama, feels wonderful about an America where Barack steadily approaches the White House door.

Broader concludes on this remarkable note: “I have not worried about the fundamental commitment of the American people since 1974. In that year, they were confronted with the stunning evidence that their president had conducted a criminal conspiracy out of the Oval Office. In response, the American people reminded Richard Nixon, the man they had just recently overwhelmingly re-elected to a second term, that in this country, no one, not even the president, is above the law. And they required him to yield his office.”

1974. Not just the high water mark of media power (knocking a president out of office via investigative reporting, after having knocked the U.S. out of a war via frontline reporting), but specifically the high water mark of Washington Post power (see “All the President’s Men”). Broader is full of his institution because, friends, the media is (almost) back.

Happy Fourth, David Broader and friends. The media’s Indian Summer of influence seems on its way.

Wednesday, July 02, 2008

The Bear Market

The stock market is a forward indicator of economic health. For that reason, today’s arrival of a bear market, as the Dow drops 20% below its all-time high last fall, is a bleak look at the future. Falling housing prices, financial sector weakness, and especially rising oil prices are taking their toll, even though the country still isn’t in recession.

Is the housing market collapse reaching bottom? No, according to the National Association of Realtors. Prices continue to fall, but in the last month for the nation, total inventory measured in months fell, and sales activity rose.

Michael Marks, writing in Forbes, has some optimistic findings on middle class income. In a late 2007 study, the Treasury Department, after reviewing the returns of 100,000 filers over 1996 to 2005, found that the same individuals from the middle quintile saw their incomes increase by 16.6% in constant 2005 dollars over the period.

As Marks said, “Wow.”

Monday, June 30, 2008

Winning the Working Class

From Heather Wilhelm’s [pictured] story on the the book Grand New Party by Atlantic writers Ross Douthat and Riehan Salam, here’s more on GOP problems with the working class:

America's working class is the ultimate swing vote, but it has yet to find a home. The GOP may have squandered opportunities in the past, but it can win working-class hearts with a politics that is oriented around the interests of the "Sam's Club" demographic, that aims to "make government work better, not pare it to the bone," and ultimately will "lead working-class America out its post-seventies struggles."

Grand New Party argues key GOP-supporting groups want more government involvement, not less, particularly regarding economic issues. The authors write, "this problem--that the working class wants, and needs, more from public policy than simply to be left alone--has prevented the Republican party from consolidating an enduring majority."

 "non-college-educated voters who make up roughly half of the American electorate” are currently wracked with a crisis: a crisis of growing inequality, social insecurity, and "anxiety over health care, pensions, and income volatility." Republicans are dreadfully out of touch with this insecurity, as well as its main political implication: "rising sympathy for the political left, with its promise of equality-through-redistribution."

 the authors express serious concern over growing social and economic stratification, in which "the country's mass upper class becomes increasingly segregated from the rest of the population" while the working class grows isolated from the culture of inherited success. The problem, which the authors admit, is that this sorting may be the natural, "logical endpoint" of a meritocracy.

 The authors say the main challenge facing the Sam's Club demographic isn’t globalization or the rise of the information economy, it’s the dramatic decline of the working class family. Working-class travails have "as much to do with culture as with economics." The sexual revolution wreaked havoc on the working class, leading to skyrocketing divorce, illegitimacy, and single-parent homes.

 "For the working-class American, who inhabits a more precarious world than the rich or the upper-middle class, family stability is a prerequisite for financial stability, and so [family instability], according to the Brookings Institution, "may be responsible for over 30 percent of the growth in income inequality between 1979 and 1996."

 How to address the issues facing America's working class? Douthat and Salam argue Republicans should promise "to fix the welfare state, rather than abolish it; to reform the Great Society, but leave more or less intact" those parts of the New Deal economically supporting social and familial reconstruction. Reward marriage and children with tax credits; recommend school choice, but in a slightly watered-down form; call for "an environmentalism that is both pro-growth and pro-jobs."

Wilhelm faults the book for missing “the over-the-top scare tactics frequently used by the ideological left. Whether it comes to school choice, Social Security reform (which Grand New Party gives up on, suggesting a payroll-tax-the-rich option instead), or other policies that could dramatically increase working class opportunities, left-wing politicians reliably unleash a firestorm of horror stories, leaving the GOP in the dust.”

Sunday, June 29, 2008

The Economy, Stupid.

We are truly suffering because of the high price of oil. Beyond that, there is a real question about how bad the economy is performing. From pollster Frank Luntz, writing in the LA Times recently, comes a good summary of where middle income people, families with incomes of about $50,000 a year—the national average—stand on the current economy. They are:

highly pessimistic and negative about the direction of the country and the condition of the economy. From 1994 through 2004, Republicans tended to have a narrow advantage among these floating voters, allowing the GOP to capture and maintain control of Congress for the decade. But they returned to the Democratic fold in the 2006 campaign and are leaning Democratic this year. They despise President Bush's economic policies and are most certainly "change" voters, but tax increases are the kind of change they will eagerly vote against.

Friday, June 27, 2008

The Myths of Evan Thomas (Part III)

Evan Thomas’ best case for debunking the Munich lesson, as mentioned, comes from U.S. involvement in Vietnam. Thomas rightly says “the fear of appeasement” was “the single most important factor in dragging America into Vietnam.” But then Thomas says Lyndon Johnson “mistook” a “civil war” for an “assault by monolithic communism,” ridicules the “domino theory” that Vietnam’s fall would turn “all” of Southeast Asia communist, and brands Vietnam a “fiasco” of defeat and lost lives. At least for “liberals who had marched against the war,” Vietnam taught us to avoid military intervention abroad.

Problems with Thomas’ take on Vietnam:

 Contrary to Thomas’ assertion, Johnson saw Vietnam as a civil war between the North and the South, the North backed by Communists, and we required to back the South (like Korea). Thomas’ friends on the left, by contrast, (correctly?) saw Vietnam as a war of national liberation, with the Communists fighting descendents of French colonialists.

 The “domino theory” became reality in Indochina—South Vietnam’s fall led to the fall of Laos and Cambodia.

 The Vietnam “fiasco,” which involved too much U.S. sacrifice, may have kept Indonesia and most of Southeast Asia non-communist in 1965, and by earning the Chinese and Soviet leaders’ respect, contributed to Nixon’s diplomatic triumphs with both.

Thomas further mischaracterizes the bitterness felt by U.S. military involved with Vietnam, including John McCain’s father, at “the failure of will of civilian leaders.” Of course, military resentment was reserved not for “civilian leaders” Nixon and Ford, but for Democrats in congress who refused to appropriate funds needed to keep South Vietnam viable following U.S. withdrawal in 1973. Thomas embarrassingly equates these U.S. military complaints to Nazis and others who blamed Germany’s World War I defeat on a Jewish “stab in the back” (he avoids the word “Jewish”, since openly likening the U.S. military to German anti-Semites would instantly discredit his overwrought analogy).

Reviewing the post-Vietnam era, Thomas continues his rewrite of history:

Thomas says Reagan wasn’t really the nail-spitting enemy of the “evil empire” he set out to be, but actually a wall-to-wall negotiator in his second term, dealing from “a position of strength.” In fact, history honors Reagan for his “position of strength” not his negotiating; his military build-up bankrupted the Soviet Union, effectively winning the Cold War (a victory recorded with the USSR’s 1991 demise).

Thomas says George H.W. Bush made a “flawed” comparison of Saddam to Hitler, when the Iraqi dictator rolled over an international border to invade Kuwait, because Saddam was only a “local” menace. In fact, Bush’s parallel was valid; Saddam had invaded Iran and had designs on other neighboring states including Saudi Arabia, and wanted to control the whole of Middle East oil.

Thomas suggests Clinton similarly erred in the Balkans when his administration likened Milosevic to Hitler. In fact, Milosevic horrified Europe with his Hitler-like ethnic cleansing in Bosnia.

Thomas suggests (he puts the words in others’ mouths) McCain is a “slightly unhinged former POW who has stubbornly determined to stay in Iraq in a war without end.” Thomas says McCain is a “believer in all or nothing” which has “a certain purity and nobility” that doesn’t reflect “the messy reality of limited wars against local insurgencies.” In fact, McCain’s belief that if you fight, you put in enough troops to win was the Iraq policy of General Shinseki, Colin Powell, and other Democratic Party heroes, though Democrats abandoned the strategy once Bush embraced McCain’s surge. In fact, McCain was hardly “all or nothing” about Vietnam; his advocacy of U.S. recognition of Vietnam as an ex-POW greatly influenced Republicans to do so in 1995. In fact, McCain’s policy to stay in Iraq until we’ve won is a “war without end” only to those like Thomas who see victory as impossible.

Thomas suggests (apparently quoting Obama) Iran’s Ahmadinejad is “no Hitler,” isn’t “the real power in Iran,” and may be gone after elections next summer, so we shouldn’t too concerned about Obama’s promise last year to negotiate with Ahmadinejad “without preconditions” in his first year. In fact, Ahmadinejad is Hitler-like in his anti-Semitic ravings and threats and in his desire to extend Persia’s control over the entire Middle East, including Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Israel. And Ahmadinejad, who enjoys the support of Iranian supreme leader Sayyid Ali Khamenei, armed with nuclear weapons will have power Hitler only dreamed of. Let’s hope that in spite of Thomas’ effort to rewrite history for his favorite next president, Obama is fully alert to the parallels the world will see if he goes umbrella-in-hand to Tehran.

Tuesday, June 24, 2008

The Myths of Evan Thomas (Part II)

Evan Thomas links his effort to disparage the Munich lesson to David Halberstam, who did more than any other journalist to redirect U.S. policy on Vietnam. Halberstam in The Best and the Brightest called Munich’s lesson a misapplied justification for “interventionism” and “use of force.” Thomas agrees, rejecting the Munich “myth” and saying he likes presidents who “realize that the choice between negotiation and force is rarely clear-cut or either-or.”

In practice, however, Thomas revises history to honor negotiation above force.

Thomas says Roosevelt praised Chamberlain at Munich and declared war on Germany only after Hitler acted first. In fact, FDR was eager to join Churchill in taking on Hitler, and more eager than Churchill to invade the continent.

Thomas says Stalin had no designs on Western Europe after World War II. In fact, only strong action by Truman headed off Communist triumphs in Greece, Turkey, France, Italy, and West Berlin.

Thomas says Communism’s conquest of China was simply an internal Chinese matter. In fact, Truman’s explicit decision to defend South Korea, Taiwan, and Indochina from Communism responded to the shock Americans felt when China went Communist on Truman’s watch.

Thomas says Eisenhower “ludicrously. . . went to the brink” to protect Taiwan’s Quemoy and Matsu from Communist attack. In fact, Eisenhower’s action stopped an invasion that threatened Taiwan.

Thomas says World War II conscientious objector Ted Sorensen wisely wrote the words in Kennedy’s inaugural, “Let us never negotiate out of fear, but let us never fear to negotiate.” In fact, Sorensen’s speech carried the words that led directly to Vietnam—“we shall pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe, in order to assure the survival and the success of liberty.” (Here, Thomas fools only people younger than himself—Obama maybe?—we all remember how Kennedy’s speech ratcheted up the Cold War).

Thomas says Kennedy stood up to the Soviets in divided Berlin. In fact, Khrushchev threw up the Berlin Wall shortly after meeting Kennedy in Vienna, and sizing him up as a weakling (see Obama, summit, first year, no preconditions).

Thomas says Kennedy “shrewdly balanced force and diplomacy” during the Cuban missile crisis. In fact, Kennedy carried the world to the brink of nuclear holocaust, forcing Khrushchev into a public humiliation that cost him his job within two years. (When Khrushchev rashly sent missiles to Cuba, he acted after the president’s ill-prepared Vienna summit led Khrushchev to underestimate Kennedy’s nerve; see Obama, summit, first year, no preconditions.)

Thomas says Kennedy negotiated a secret Cuban missile compromise similar to the “appeasement” Kennedy later charged Adlai Stevenson had advocated. In fact, Stevenson truly worried about war. In fact, the U.S. agreement to pull obsolete Jupiter missiles out of Turkey meant little; the missiles had no strategic significance, and the secrecy of their withdrawal protected Turkish face. In fact, Khrushchev had to back down because of an 8:1 U.S. advantage in strategic missiles—a fact Thomas knows but ignores.

The truth is, as Thomas writes, "The Kennedy's favorite word--and highest praise--was 'tough.'" Roosevelt was tough in war, Truman was tough in dealing with Communists, Eisenhower valued peace but was tough with China, Kennedy was tough. None were Evan Thomas-type presidents squeamish about using force. All believed "the Munich lesson" and all viewed "appeasement" as a dirty word.

Sunday, June 22, 2008

The Myths of Evan Thomas (Part I)

Evan Thomas, assistant managing editor of Newsweek, is the grandson of famed American socialist Norman Thomas and author of six books. He is also responsible for the embarrassingly inexcusable defense of the media’s pre-trial conviction of several Duke lacrosse players, saying, “The narrative was right, but the facts were wrong." And last month he co-wrote Newsweek’s partisan, pre-emptive attack on John McCain.

With Newsweek’s help, Thomas has now written another amazing article “The Mythology of Munich,” his revisionist history of the last 70 years. Thomas knows the left may soon be running U.S. foreign policy. So Thomas is seeking to justify an upcoming American foreign policy lurch to the left, should Obama move in that direction.

Let’s examine Thomas’ thinking. Thomas believes Churchill’s bulldog defense of England in the face of Hitler’s 1940 invasion threat needs a little rewrite. Churchill, you see, actually considered a secret Hitler peace offer, but helped by Neville Chamberlain’s opposition to the offer, decided instead to tell the world, “We will never surrender.” Thomas likes that Churchill wavered, saying he’s “all the more admirable for it.”

Thomas’ larger objective is to rewrite Munich history by elevating Chamberlain’s role as he diminishes Churchill’s. Thomas suggests critics wrongly view Chamberlain as “weak-kneed” and Churchill as “the beau ideal of indomitable leadership.” And he builds sympathy for Chamberlain’s appeasement of Hitler by quoting a Roosevelt telegram that praises Chamberlain’s action at the time—as if FDR and his entire administration didn’t see the folly of Munich within a few months. Thomas here and elsewhere acts as if readers themselves barely know history, or that people who know World War II are no longer with us (Thomas was born in 1951).

Thomas states Munich’s lesson was that “giving into aggression just invites more aggression.” In fact, Munich’s lesson is that we have to meet aggression head-on immediately and decisively, for it’s much harder after the aggressor strengthens. Hitler was bent on aggression, which should have been evident enough to Chamberlain in 1938 that he was willing to take him on. By characterizing Munich's lesson as “giving into aggression just invites more aggression,” Thomas implies that not stopping Hitler when he digested Czechoslovakia and doing little to Hitler after Poland’s fall (the Phony War) were no big deal—stop aggression sooner or later, the result is the same. But waiting until 1940 to fight in fact cost the allies millions of unnecessary lives. (See William Shirer’s Rise and Fall of the Third Reich.) Munich’s lesson was act swiftly to save lives.

Thomas is out to knock down the Munich “myth” because he sees (as we unenlightened do not) the “messy reality” of “statesmanship.” It “inevitably involves compromise, including. . . saying one thing while doing another.” Whatever Reagan said, he was in fact a negotiator. And in the Cuban Missile Crisis, Kennedy “understood that choice between appeasement and force is a false one, the trick is to know when to deal and when to fight.”

Is Thomas really saying Chamberlain was right to “deal” and not “fight” with Hitler? Well, maybe not. For Thomas also tells us, “the only real Hitler was Hitler,” so even if his friend Chamberlain might have been a bit wrong at Munich, don’t apply the Munich lesson anywhere else. For Thomas, what made Hitler different from other megalomaniac dictators like Stalin, Milosevic, and Saddam is that he set out to conquer Europe "and he very nearly succeeded." This is an odd statement for Thomas, a man seeking to disparage the Munich "myth," to make. The reason Hitler nearly succeeded is that he wasn't stopped at Munich!

In sum, Thomas thinks we misunderstand the Munich lesson because Chamberlain actually had some backbone and Roosevelt supported him. But if you don’t like his first answer, Thomas’ second defense is that Hitler was sui generis. Does that sound like a lawyer talking? Surprise, Thomas is a lawyer.

Saturday, June 21, 2008

Stock Market Sinks Below Betsy’s Level

It took over 11 weeks. But the market dropped below levels it was at before its April 1 jump, falling back as ABC’s Betsy Stark had predicted it would on April Fools Day (she anticipated days, not months). Oil prices are indeed behind what “gloom and doom“ Stark, rarely seen since March, called Wall Street’s deepening “mood of despair.”

Even pessimists get it right sometimes.

Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Haditha: One Bad Marine?

Was there a massacre at Haditha? Maybe. But Michelle Malkin reports “Yet another U.S. Marine, Lt. Col. Jeffrey Chessani, had charges dropped Tuesday in the so-called Haditha massacre -- bringing the total number of Marines who've been cleared or won case dismissals in the Iraq war incident to seven. 'Undue command influence' on the prosecution led to the outcome in Chessani's case. Bottom line: That's zero for seven for military prosecutors, with one trial [Staff Sgt. Frank D. Wuterich, pictured] left to go.”

She goes on to repeat the before-trial convictions offered by anti-Iraq war critics Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa (“Our troops overreacted because of the pressure on them, and they killed innocent civilians in cold blood."), MSNBC ‘s Keith Olbermann, The Nation magazine, The New York Times, especially reporter Paul von Zielbauer but also Maureen Dowd ("My Lai acid flashback"), The Guardian ("My Lai on the Euphrates?"), the Daily Telegraph ("Massacre in Iraq just like My Lai"), the Los Angeles Times ("What happened at the Iraqi My Lai?") and the Associated Press (story with old My Lai photos).

Cozy Bed: Trial Lawyers, Democrats, Media, Hollywood

The following summarizes an article by Steven Malanga of the Manhattan Institute, a conservative think tank:

Trial lawyers. Melvyn Weiss, the dean of U.S. securities litigation, has been sentenced to 30 months in prison for his role in what a judge called a decades-old “nationwide conspiracy” of lawyers using illegal kickbacks to recruit plaintiffs for lawsuits against corporations.

Media. Given the magnitude of Weiss’ cases, his sentencing, which marked the end of his career, might have seemed like a slam dunk front-page newspaper story. It wasn’t at all.

Democrats. Obama rails against a “corporate culture rife with inside dealing, questionable accounting practices and short-term greed.” Yet while Weiss’ former partner, William Lerach, is jailed for obstruction of justice and the biggest misdeeds are piling up in front of the trial bar, they don’t elicit outrage or calls for reform.

Hollywood. Richard “Dickie” Scruggs, the Mississippi plaintiffs’ attorney who wrestled with the tobacco industry in the 1990s, was portrayed heroically in the movie “The Insider.” He pled guilty in March to trying to bribe a local judge.

Meanwhile, trial bar offenses in the decades-long asbestos litigation frenzy, in which lawyers have ginned up phony diagnoses using compliant doctors, and paid kickbacks to union officials to recruit workers as plaintiffs, go unnoticed. Defendants have already paid out a staggering $70 billion in claims that wrecked dozens of businesses, cost thousands of workers their jobs, and enriched plaintiffs (many with no demonstrable health problems and no medical bills) and especially their lawyer, who’ve claimed more than half the awards in fees and expenses. As judge Denis Jacobs noted, many asbestos claims are based on “fraud, corrupt experts, perjury, and other things that would be deplored and persecuted by the legal profession if done within other commercial fields.”

A cadre of lawyers has relentlessly pursued and dealt devastating financial blows to a series of industries, from construction firms to vaccine makers, to manufacturers of scientifically-proven safe products like silicon breast implants, to publicly held firms whose only offense was a sharp drop in share price. Yet you have to look hard to find editorial outrage about the trial bar’s dubious methods.

Contrast that with the massive coverage and indignation over corporate misdeeds. Enron CEO Kenneth Lay in 2004 garnered more than 1,000 stories in just a few days. But whereas Enron quickly produced the Sarbanes-Oxley Act, all the trial bar’s shenanigans seem to have shaped in Washington is more friendly legislation on their behalf. In the hopper now is the Energy and Tax Extenders Act of 2008, which includes a provision to allow plaintiffs’ attorneys to deduct upfront from their tax bill the expenses of pursuing a case on a contingency-fee basis.

The direct victims of the trial bar are mostly deep-pocketed institutions like companies, governments and big nonprofits (hospitals, for instance) that elicit little sympathy from the press, while trial lawyers skillfully cultivate the press, providing them scoops in advance of lawsuits. It was a trial firm, for instance, that originally provided the New York Times transcripts of a meeting of Texaco managers which (falsely, it turns out) purported to show them using racial epithets.

Monday, June 16, 2008

The Third Falsehood

First came Iraq. A lost cause; the sooner we’re out, the better. Now with its cover saying, “Iraq starts to fix itself,” the Economist, which had proclaimed the U.S. effort in Iraq a “debacle,” sits itself down to a meal of crow. Of course the article is full of qualifiers, but the Economist is ahead of the American media in owning up to the current positive picture in Iraq. In the U.S., as the Economist notes, the media have dealt with Iraq’s turn for the better by ignoring it--airtime that in 2007 went 22% for Iraq news is now down to 4% and falling.

Iraq is the media’s #1 reason for voting Obama this fall. But reason #2 is the second falsehood, the poor state of our economy. Where is that recession, anyway? Though he overstates his point, Anatole Kaletsky, in The Times (London), says flatly: “If there were going to be a US recession in response to the credit crisis, it would have started by now. So let me stick my neck out and say without qualification - the US economy is out of the woods.”

Given their success with Iraq and the economy, the media are now working on their third falsehood designed to deliver the election to Obama: McCain is Bush, or McBush. Democrats want to tie McCain to Bush because of the president’s high negatives, and the media are gleefully going along. McCain is Bush because he favors victory in Iraq. Never mind that McCain called for Rumsfeld to be fired and blasted Rummy’s strategy, never mind McCain called for a troop surge three years ago, and never mind McCain’s strategy turned out to be right. McCain is Bush because he wants to keep taxes down, and supports free trade. Never mind that raising taxes and curbing free trade are disastrous policies McCain would be wrong to favor. And of course McCain opposes abortion and supports a strict constructionist Supreme Court.

But McCain isn’t Bush. He’s a maverick who denounces overpaid CEOs including oil men, favors campaign finance reform, strictly opposes enhanced interrogation techniques, supports cap-and-trade and other policies to curb global warming, won’t drill in ANWAR, opposes pork barrel spending Bush went along with, criticized Bush for Katrina screw-ups, and believes in getting along with the media by being open and honest with them. The media, having succeeded in falsely making Iraq and the economy issues that work against McCain, will now falsely paint McCain as Bush #3. They will do so because given their slipping power, they want to be seen as so biased in favor of Obama that they will be blamed for (actually credited with) Barack’s win.

Saturday, June 14, 2008

Media, Democrats Exaggerate Bad Economy

“Democrats insist Republicans are ruining domestic policy, Republicans insist Democrats are ruining foreign policy. Neither claim is true.”

--Gregg Easterbrook, Brookings Institution

How bad is the economy, really? The cost of oil has gone through the roof, directly impacting gasoline prices and indirectly most everything else. When oil hit $139 a barrel, the Dow Jones dropped 400 points. We are also going through a deflating housing bubble and a related credit crisis. Yet the stock market is up again this week, unemployment remains historically low at 5.5%, and we still haven’t seen a recession, though Democrats and the media have used the “R” word repeatedly for nearly a year.

Easterbrook adds, “Inflation was up in 2007, but this stands out because the 16 previous years were close to inflation-free; living standards are the highest they have ever been, including living standards for the middle class and for the poor[; furthermore,] all forms of pollution other than greenhouse gases are in decline.”

I have looked at a contrasting set of statistics, and concluded Republicans will have a hard time justifying their stewardship of the economy to voters this Fall. Still, I share Easterbrook’s amazement that, as a recent CBS News/New York Times poll showed, "Americans' views on the economy and the general state of the country have hit an all-time low," with 81% saying the nation is on the "wrong track" – the worst-ever number for this barometer. It’s not that bad.

Easterbrook, a media person himself, believes
increasing pessimism from the news media is surely a factor – and the media grow ever-better at giving negative impressions. . . Whatever goes wrong in the country or around the world is telecast 24/7, making us think the world is falling to pieces – even when most things are getting better for most people, even in developing nations. . .

The relentlessly negative impressions of American life presented by the media, including the entertainment media, explain something otherwise puzzling that shows up in psychological data. When asked about . . . their own jobs, schools, doctors and communities, people tell pollsters the situation is good. Our impressions of ourselves and our neighbors come from personal experience. Our impressions of the nation as a whole come from the media and from political blather, which both exaggerate the negative.

Friday, June 13, 2008

Two Conservative Writers Worry about Obama

Wall Street Journal columnist Peggy Noonan, Reagan’s brilliant speechwriter, believes these points characterize Obama’s America:

 love of country is a decision. It's one you make after weighing the pros and cons. What you breathe in is skepticism and a heightened appreciation of the global view.

 Tradition is a challenge, a barrier, or a lovely antique.

 We have to have a government and I am desperate to love it.

 Religion is problematic.

Noonan also feels “Obama is the new world [of] doubt as to the excellence of the old[, one that] prizes ambivalence as proof of thoughtfulness, as evidence of a textured seriousness.”

More pointedly political in her rejection of Obama, The Weekly Standard’s Noemie Emery writes in seemingly obvious pursuit of those who voted Clinton in the Democratic primaries:

Obama carried white voters in only two places--state capitals and university towns, where he amassed huge followings among students, teachers, and employees of the government, most of whom (a) tend to lean left; (b) live in a world of words and abstractions; and (c) due to tenure, unions, and parental support, find themselves outside of the world of the marketplace. As such, they are pushovers for ego-massaging and vacuous maunderings. They tend not to notice that his frame of reference is always himself and his feelings, and that his appeals to racial healing, bipartisanship, government reform and sweet reason do not connect to his acts in real life.

In the real world, [Obama] has voted party line on almost all issues, has managed to befriend and hang out with an amazing collection of people whose lives contradict all these themes, including racists, demagogues, some of the most corrupt practitioners of machine urban politics, and people whose idea of political action once involved planting bombs. These sorts of things may not bother students or shoppers at Whole Foods, but they do bother people who cling to God and their guns out of sheer desperation. . .

Thursday, June 12, 2008

McCain Muffs Town Hall Meeting

McCain’s New York City town hall meeting just concluded (covered on Fox News). McCain moved around, freed from the teleprompter that gripped his eyeballs in earlier, stiff TV appearances, yet he seemed to be worried he would miss key points. So he kept looking back at a card he had on a podium, something Obama wouldn’t have had to do. At one point—and he only answered a few questions after a long and less-than-smooth introduction—he completely lost his train of thought when an articulate Hispanic lawyer asked him a softball question about what kind of person he wanted on the Supreme Court. McCain so focused on the questionnaire’s appearance that he could only talk about the Hispanic vote, and had to fumble his way to having the simple question repeated. Embarrassing.

It’s early, and there’s still time. But Fox News’ Carl Cameron said McCain is only interested in doing town meetings—nothing else grabs his passion. If so, McCain’s people have to be really concerned that Obama and the national audience Obama would bring with him will show up for a future town hall meeting, because off tonight’s performance, it looks like Obama would wipe the floor with McCain.

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Iraq: Best Month Yet


Here is our latest monthly highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 63
2008: 30
May: 15

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
1970: 413
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.20 (Revised upward, 1/08)
actual: 2.50 (5/08)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,130 (5/08)

Since our last monthly report, the monthly American KIA total fell dramatically from 49 in April to 15, the second lowest total for any month of the Iraq war. The KIA total was up in April in support of al Maliki's apparently successful effort to reduce the power of outlaw Shiite militias in Baghdad and Basra. Maliki's success has in turn brought the low level of violence seen in May. The low May KIA total for Americans has made 2008, thus far averaging only 30, the war's best year for average monthly KIA. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.]

In April, oil output jumped from 2.40 to 2.50 million barrels a day, the second highest monthly total ever. Revenue from oil exports continues to hit all-time highs, with May's total the highest on record, and $1 billion above April's. As with oil, output for electricity increased, growing from 4,030 megawatts in April to 4,130 megawatts in May. May's output was the highest for any May since the war began. Electricity output remains above the 4,000 megawatt threshold; significant because Iraq needs 8,500 megawatts to meet its demand, and gets from 2,000 to 4,500 megawatts from privately-owned generators.

Friday, June 06, 2008

The Truth about Iraq

"[Concerning Iraq,] what don't the critics like? Democracy? The defeat of al Qaeda? Muslims turning to the US military for help? Troop cuts? The dramatically improved human-rights situation? What's the problem here? The answer's simple: Admitting that they've been mistaken about Iraq guts the left's argument for political entitlement. If the otherwise deplorable Bush administration somehow got this one right, it means the left got another big one wrong. . . The bottom line? Al Qaeda let the war's opponents down."

--Ralph Peters, The New York Post

Well, not exactly.

While many on the left did (do) hope the Bush administration, the U.S. military, and the Iraqi government chosen by Iraqis in U.S.-facilitated elections would lose out to either al Qaeda, Muqtada al Sadr, or both, the congressional Democrats including Obama who have relentlessly pushed for withdrawal from Iraq in the face of the surge’s mounting U.S. success have a fallback position. If the U.S. somehow proves able to leave a functioning national Iraqi government behind, that’s fine with them. Just don’t have it happen before November 4, 2008.

Democrats know they will get some real cooperation from the military, who are too professional and measured to proclaim early victory, and who have a bias toward sticking with a fight they began. And the military have a natural skepticism about the Iraqis’ ability to operate Iraq’s political and security system on their own. The military are unlikely to proclaim victory between now and November, which leaves Democrats somewhat free to perpetuate their colored version of progress, one that emphasizes the messy part of war. “We should have never gone in. Not worth the cost. Bush’s war.”

After he’s safely in the White House, Obama will be able to heed the words of U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker [pictured], who recently said of this war: "In the end, how we leave and what we leave behind will be more important than how we came."

Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Two Americas

The key demographic – unaffiliated 40+ white voters in the swing states – . . . appear to have developed (if recent state and congressional results are anything to go by) an instinctive dislike of the Republican Party, because of its complete inability to govern successfully.

-- David Runciman, London Review of Books

What are the baby boomers' collective traits? Like all perpetual adolescents who suffer arrested development, we always want things both ways: Don't drill or explore for more energy, but nevertheless demand ever more fuel from other suppliers. . . Housing not only has to stay affordable for buyers, but also must appreciate in value to give instant equity to those who have just become owners. . . And why accept that the conduct of all wars is flawed and victory goes usually to those who persevere in making the needed adjustments when we can just keep pointing fingers at the official who disbanded the Iraqi army or sent too few troops after the invasion? . . . We "earned" our generous unsustainable Social Security benefits, so why should we have to suffer by cutting them? Sociologists have correctly diagnosed the perfect storm that created the "me" generation -- sudden postwar affluence, sacrificing parents who did not wish us to suffer as they had in the Great Depression and World War II, and the rise of therapeutic education that encouraged self-indulgence.

-- Victor Davis Hanson, May 29, 2008


So, should we blame Bush, or should we blame the “me, me” folks who can’t stand him? Answer: blame Bush. It’s easier (look how much shorter the anti-Bush message is, and how quickly it gets to its point), and it’s based on some truth. The some truth: Katrina. The gift that keeps on giving.

Wednesday, May 28, 2008

Democrats’ Concern for Veterans (II)

AP’s Pauline Jelinek covers a story about Iraq and Afghanistan combat-generated post traumatic stress disorder that gets facts in perspective. Some, including House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have suggested mental disorders affect 20% of those returning from combat areas. Army Surgeon General Eric Schoomaker notes that PTSD is widely misunderstood by the press and the public—and that what is often just normal post-traumatic anxiety and stress is mistaken for full-blown PTSD. Schoomaker does report that PTSD was up recently because 1) 2007 was the most violent year in both conflicts; 2) more troops were serving their second, third or fourth tours of duty, which dramatically increases stress, and; 3) officials extended tour lengths to 15 months from 12. Two of these factors are changing for the better in 2008.

Still, the Surgeon General’s latest statistics indicate PTSD affected 2.7% of those serving in combat areas, a figure in the neighborhood of the Veterans Administration’s nearly 4% estimate.

Democrats’ Concern for Veterans (I)

It seems strange to have Democrats, led by Vietnam veteran and Virginia Sen. James Webb, offering a bill with generous education benefits for military enlistees, and John McCain opposing the bill. What gives?

As one might guess, things aren’t what they seem. No reason to question Webb’s sincerity, or those of some supporters. Webb based his bill on the benefits offered World War II veterans, many of them draftees. The reason McCain and Bush oppose Webb’s bill is that it would encourage volunteer enlistees (from an all-volunteer, zero draftee military) to leave after one hitch, since Webb’s bill provides no increase in educational benefits for re-enlistees. McCain’s bill, supported by Bush, would scale up educational benefits the longer one serves, and McCain would also make educational benefits transferable to a family member, which would further encourage continued service. Democrats unsurprisingly denied senators the chance to vote on Republican McCain’s bill.

Dark minds like mine believe Webb’s bill appeals strongly to Democrats because its effect is to undermine military recruitment, thus hurting the military machine and thereby making future wars less likely.

Friday, May 23, 2008

Behind the Story: Taking Back the White House (II)

“For as it is written, the last shall be first and the geek shall inherit the earth.”

--David Brooks, New York Times, May 23, 2008

As a student of the media, I am transfixed by the question, “Why is the media so willing to bend truth to win the White House?” Why is winning the presidency “the only thing?” The U.S. went into Iraq after destroying al Qaeda’s base in Afghanistan to make sure that an oil-rich, dedicated American enemy didn’t become al Qaeda’s next base. Iraq nearly did, a fact the media covered in detail. Yet now that the U.S. has largely defeated al Qaeda in Iraq, the media ignore that truth while still treating Iraq as a major American failure. Unreal.

Unreal, unless one believes American warriors are the world’s greatest danger. Vietnam transformed America. It was moral to oppose America’s war in Vietnam, even though that opposition cost the Democrats power (Nixon’s victories in 1968 and 1972). The media gained control over the American elite in 1965-72 by educating the country on Vietnam, using Vietnam to capture the moral high ground. Then they consolidated victory in the wonderful three years of 1973-76 when they engineered Nixon’s removal as president and helped deliver overwhelming Democratic congressional majorities in 1974, then helped put Carter in the White House in 1976. Power returned to Democrats, but as a transformed, moral Democratic party that opposed war, sought a Cold War truce, and worked for human rights around the world.

For the media, those were the Golden Years. It’s so different now, with newspaper circulation rapidly declining along with major TV network viewership. As “Mad Money’s” Jim Cramer says, "The world got changed by two companies. Apple is taking away the profitability of TV, and Google is taking it away in print. And it's never going to reverse." So the media are in the fight of their lives. But a total victory in November for Democrats, restoring power to those who believe in a moral (anti-Iraq war) foreign policy and in a well-financed, moral government passing legislation that benefits the people, well, that’s worth fighting hard for, and in the process perhaps demonstrating media still count.

The media have totally digested the #1 political lesson of “It’s the economy, stupid.” A bad economy turns out the regime in power, so for seven-plus years, media have looked for every sign the Bush-led economy is in trouble. Since Bush’s economy mostly produced jobs, lowered unemployment, provided growth, avoided recession, and reduced the deficit growth rate, convincing Americans we are “on the wrong track” economically is a major media achievement. So Iraq, the economy, and Katrina, a mess Bush mishandled on national TV to the media’s delight, have soured the national mood. Media, take a bow.

“Nuclear scientist” Jimmy Carter represented a triumph of the intellectuals in 1976, but Carter was deeply religious, and won millions of votes on that basis. In the end, Carter deeply disappointed his media cheerleaders. Obama is different. Goes to church, but tunes out his pastor. Obama’s win will represent a true triumph of the American intelligentsia, secular but religiously believing government programs improve our lives.

Thursday, May 22, 2008

Behind the Story: Taking Back the White House (I)

The big fault line in politics today is between believers and non-believers, or those who go to church and those who don’t. So what do non-believers believe in? What’s the oil in their crankcase?

Answer: better living through government. Non-believers reached where they are through thinking. Their brains control the secular world. In the absence of God, they are god. And their church, the priesthood who knows what’s best for the rest of us, makes good things happen through government.

Government brought about equality for women and ethnic minorities, for gays and lesbians. Government brought workers into the middle class by protecting unions. Government feeds, houses, and nurses the elderly through Social Security and Medicare. Government educates and nurses the children, and it provides for the poor and weak. Government protects non-human living things and the environment, and government pays for itself by taxing those who are more fortunate.

Government’s allies include the media and entertainment industry; they believe in better living through government, and they directly benefit from first amendment protection. It also includes lawyers who enjoy constitutional protection. And there are those benefiting from government money—civil service employees, teachers, contractors, academics, and the non-profit sector.

Government does better when Democrats run Washington, and worse when Republicans control the House, Senate, or especially, the White House. Republicans have had one or more of these pieces of power for all but 6 years since 1968 (85% of the time), and every year since 1994.

As Obama says, “Change we can believe in”.

Obama's Pre-emptive Strike on McCain

"McCain faces an expanding and energised Democratic Party that is desperate to retake the White House."

--The Economist, May 19, 2008


And what goes for the Democratic Party goes for their media friends as well--desperate to retake the White House. Example: Newsweek has written an exceptionally biased preventive attack on John McCain. It’s designed to help Democrats treat any McCain criticism of Obama as, in the words of McCain advisor Mark Salter, “a below the belt, Republican attack machine distortion that should discredit [its] authors.”

Here’s a statement from the Newsweek article, written by Richard Wolffe and Evan Thomas, that identifies the authors' degree of bias. Talking about how Obama may be different as president from the [highly effective] campaigner we now know, they say of Bush, “It was only after he became president that voters began to grasp Bush's failings as an executive—his disdain for expert opinion, his stubborn approach to policy or rivals, his fatal lack of follow-through.” O.K.

Some excerpts from Wolffe’s and Thomas’s pre-launch attack on the McCain campaign:

 The Republican Party has been successfully scaring voters since 1968, when Richard Nixon built a Silent Majority out of lower- and middle-class folks frightened or disturbed by hippies and student radicals and blacks rioting in the inner cities. . . It is a sure bet [emphasis added] that the GOP will try to paint Obama as "the other"—as a haughty black intellectual who has Muslim roots (Obama is a Christian) and hangs around with America-haters.

 Sen. John McCain . . . may not be able to resist casting doubt on Obama's patriotism. And the real question is . . . can—or [does he want] to—rein in the merchants of slime and sellers of hate who populate the Internet and fund the "independent expenditure" groups who . . . give a bad name to free speech.

 Team Obama has . . . a plan for the coming mud war. [They will] put McCain on the spot. . . Recently, when a reporter asked McCain, "Does it bother you at all that you might actually benefit from latent prejudice in the country?" he answered: "That would bother me a lot. That would bother me a great deal" . . .So if McCain. . . exploit[s] Obama's ties to the fiery Reverend Wright, the Obama-ites can question his sincerity—is he really the "Straight Talk" candidate?

 And if McCain can't stop others from the sort of innuendo and code that Republicans have learned to frighten voters, [emphasis added] Obama can cast doubt on McCain's credentials as a commander in chief. ("In other words . . .they can say that McCain is either a hypocrite or impotent.")

 The model is the notorious [emphasis added] Swift Boat Veterans for Truth who unfairly [emphasis added] but effectively questioned John Kerry's war record in 2004. Indeed, two of the most experienced attack artists are already gearing up[:] Floyd Brown, who produced the infamous "Willie Horton" commercial that used race and fear of crime to drive voters away from Democratic presidential candidate Michael Dukakis in 1988, [and] David Bossie, already deep into a mudslinging campaign against Obama [with his] documentary that will portray Obama as a "limousine, out-of-control leftist liberal … more liberal than [Vermont Sen.] Bernie Sanders, who is a socialist."

Thursday, May 15, 2008

GOP Depression Coming? (II)

Republicans will no longer be the American political force they were just four years ago. The best evidence comes from American National Election Studies data, summarized by Alan Abramowitz of Emory University. Abramowitz has found that:

 In American politics today, whether you are a married white Christian is a much stronger predictor of your political preferences than your gender or your class.

 Between the middle of the 20th century and the beginning of the 21st, the proportion of whites has fallen by about 15%, the proportion of married persons has fallen by about 25%, and the proportion of Christians by about 10%.


 Married white Christians have gone from close to 80% of the electorate in the 1950s to just over 40% of the electorate in the first decade of the 21st century [see chart]. The proportion of married white Christians among voters under 30 has plummeted from almost 80% in the 1950s to less than 20%.

 Between the 1950s and now, Republican identification among married white Christians increased by more than 20%, going from about 40% to over 60%. However, the ability of the GOP to continue to offset the diminishing size of its married white Christian base by making further gains is questionable.

 In the 2006 House elections, married white Christians under 30 were just as likely to vote for a Republican as married white Christians over 30. Similarly, voters over 30 not married white Christians were just as likely to vote Democratic as voters under 30 not married white Christians. So voters under 30 are now significantly more Democratic than older voters because they are much less likely to be married, white, and Christian.

 Republicans will need to find ways to reduce the Democratic advantage among voters who are not married white Christians in order to maintain the party's competitive position. However, given the [groups’] generally liberal views, this will not be easy.

Tuesday, May 13, 2008

GOP Depression Coming? (I)

Mississippi’s open seat went Democratic, a big, serious sign Republicans are headed for a massacre at the polls in November. The Wall Street Journal ran a recent poll that showed only 27% of the country is currently Republican, the lowest percentage for either party in the poll’s 20 year history. Still, the poll found John McCain remains competitive with Obama:

 McCain's current political viability contrasts with that of his party. It underscores the extent to which his personality and image, rather than issues such as the war and the economy, could shape this presidential election.

 [Yet] 43% say they have "major concerns" that Sen. McCain "will be too closely aligned with the Bush agenda." His vulnerability to the Bush link is one that Democrats already are exploiting, with near-daily attacks from the national party suggesting a McCain administration would amount to a third Bush term.

One reason Republicans are likely to crash in November: McCain will run away from the “Republican (meaning Bush)” label as fast and hard as he can, leaving the rest of the GOP high and dry. He has no other real hope for survival. McCain polls well because:

 By 54% to 35%, voters say they identify with Sen. McCain's "background and set of values," which the pollsters describe as traits such as honor, trustworthiness and patriotism. "It's not about the war. It's not about the economy. It is pure and simple about values," said [Democrat pollster Peter] Hart.

Potential Republican Disaster

The election everybody will be watching this evening is for an open congressional seat in Mississippi, not Clinton’s expected victory in West Virginia. As Congressional Quarterly notes:

"If Travis W. Childers, a Prentiss County Chancery Clerk, beats Republican Greg Davis [pictured], mayor of Southaven, in [today]'s election, Childers would become the third Democrat in recent months to take over a Republican-held seat. Democrat Bill Foster, a scientist and businessman, won Illinois' 14th District seat on March 8. The seat was formerly represented by Republican J. Dennis Hastert, Speaker of the House. On May 3, Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux won a Republican-held seat in Lousiana's 6th District."

All three seats were “safe Republican”. Democrats winning yet another special election in the Spring signals a landslide victory for congressional Democrats this Fall.

Sunday, May 11, 2008

Can Israel survive?

The Atlantic’s Jeffery Goldberg, has written a thoughtful piece to mark Israel’s 60th anniversary. One way to understand the profound difference between Israel and the U.S. is that 94% of Jewish Israelis said they are willing to fight for their country, while only 63% of Americans are willing to fight for ours. Yet at the same time, a remarkable 44% of Israelis said they would be ready to leave their country if they could find a better standard of living abroad. There are already roughly 40,000 Israelis in Silicon Valley and more than a half million in the U.S. Life is so dangerous in Israel, a country most of its Arab neighbors still won’t accept.

Goldberg lasers in on the key paradox Israel faces. To make headway with its Palestine neighbor, Israel must stop building settlements on the West Bank, and get ready to give most up. It must, but it can’t, even though we are talking about only 200,000 people. It’s the settlers who are most determined to stay, and sons of the settlements now account for more than 25% of the Israeli officer corps.

Sharon might have fixed the settlement problem. Tragic.

Friday, May 09, 2008

No Champagne for Sarkozy

This blog has raved about Nicholas Sarkozy’s efforts to reform France and improve its economy. But a year after coming to office, the International Harold Tribune’s Katrin Bennhold writes that the reforms he promised are mostly unrealized. According to Bennhold:

Most strikingly . . . Sarkozy never abolished the 35-hour week, a Socialist law that has become emblematic of the complex French rules on labor.

Rather than raising [the] limit, Sarkozy has created complex incentives to ignore it: a tax break on overtime, costing the state $9.3 billion, and a law forcing companies to pay workers who prefer cash to extra time off. . .

On factory floors and in boardrooms, the changes were welcomed, although not as the revolution that many had sought. "A bonus," said Laurence Parisot, president of the Medef, France's biggest employer federation. Clara Gaymard, managing director of General Electric in France, was less diplomatic: "This is not the real reform of the labor market we expect."


Bennhold concludes:

Ever since a clear defeat in local elections in March, Sarkozy's own center-right party has become less eager for unpopular measures. Slowing growth and rising inflation have [further] complicated Sarkozy's call for change.

Thursday, May 08, 2008

Iraq: A Price for Maliki's War on Shiite Militias


Here is our latest monthly highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 63
2008: 34
April: 49

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
1970: 413
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.20 (Revised upward, 1/08)
actual: 2.23 (4/08)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,030 (4/08)

Since our last monthly report, the monthly American KIA total rose by 20 from 29 in March. Al Maliki's attack on the Shiite extra-legal militias in Basra and Sadr City--whatever its progress--has taken a toll on American as well as Iraqi government fighters. Nevertheless, the monthly American KIA average remains at half the rate of 2 a day sustained for most of the Iraq war, and to date only the monthly average for 2003 is lower than that for 2008. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] Fatal helicopter crashes bring the biggest surge in combat deaths; none have occurred since August 2007.

In April, oil output decreased from 2.38 to 2.23 million barrels a day. Revenue from oil exports continues at all-time highs, with March's total the highest on record. When complete figures are in for April, its revenue should be at or near the top, partly due to oil's all-time high prices. There has been a sharp drop-off in attacks on oil and gas pipelines since August 2007. From June 2003 to August 2007, for over four years, Iraq had to deal with an average of 9 pipeline attacks a month. From September on, the number of attacks has dropped to just one a month. This sharp reduction in pipeline disruptions contributes to Iraq's rising oil revenues.

As with oil, output dropped for electricity, declining from 4,220 megawatts in March to 4,030 megawatts in April. Perhaps disruptions associated with Maliki's offensive against the Shia militias have affected both oil and electricity output. Still, electricity output remains above the 4,000 megawatt threshold. The 4,000 megawatt level may be significant; Iraq needs 8,500 megawatts to meet its demand, and gets from 2,000 to 4,500 megawatts from privately-owned generators.

Monday, May 05, 2008

Obama 0.5

“At stake is not simply the leadership of our party and even our country. It is our right to the moral leadership of this planet.”

--Robert Kennedy, announcing for president (1968)


I watched Obama on “Meet the Press”. He’s got a new approach. He emphasizes the struggles of his (white) single mom, the fighting patriotism of his (white) grandfather in World War II, the hard work of his (white) grandmother in the Midwest during the depression and war, and of his wife’s blue-collar, sole family breadwinner father, like “your (white) dad, Tim (Russert), [who] looked nothing like Michelle's dad, but they lived that same American dream.”

So how does Obama go after the white, working-class voters Clinton is winning because she’s white and he ain’t? He reminds people he’s ½ (0.5) white by discussing his white heritage. Obama's new approach might not be in time to win Indiana tomorrow, but with this “I’m white too” message plus sufficient money, he may cut into Clinton’s white support in Kentucky and West Virginia later.

Meanwhile, Obama is attempting to assert his moral leadership by blasting Clinton for her “pandering” (along with John McCain) call for no gasoline tax this summer. Obama rightly suggests Clinton will say anything to get elected. Obama is with nearly every thinking person in denouncing Clinton’s proposed (it won’t happen) cut in gas taxes when we actually need for gas taxes to go up.

But then there’s foreign policy, where Obama makes less sense. Noting one of the chief outcomes of our Iraq intervention is a stronger Iran, he then proposes that we put pressure on Iran—he doesn’t want to “take military options off the table”—by withdrawing our troops from neighboring Iraq without winning there first. Boy, Barry, that will show Iran! You bet.

Or maybe I just don’t get it. Maybe I should understand Iraq isn't about national security, it's a morality play. War is immoral, and since we started the Iraq war, we must lose. I should just accept that Iraq is, truly is, the Vietnam of our generation. Iraq defines us morally the way Vietnam defined Robert Kennedy’s America in 1968. Until we rid ourselves of our Iraq stain, we can’t lead the world to victory in Iran or anywhere else.

But Iraq isn’t Vietnam. Lesson 1.0.