Thursday, February 12, 2009

Understanding Obama’s Victory

69.5 million votes! “Obama's raw popular vote margin of victory (9.5 million) was the largest ever for a non-incumbent presidential candidate.” In fact, Obama got 7.4 million more votes than the previous all-time top vote getter—Bush in 2004. Obama won as a black in a still-white country, with just 43% of the white vote. He’s the first northern Democrat (liberal) elected president since Kennedy in 1960, and Obama-Biden is the first all-northern Democratic ticket to win since Roosevelt-Wallace in 1940.

The Obama campaign is, of course, the first to ride to the White House on the back of the internet. Esquire’s profile of David Plouffe tells how Plouffe built a “fulsome pulsing beast” from 13 million e-mail addresses; a beast that raised money, generated volunteers, and delivered votes, again and again and again. A list of 13 million. And Obama wins with 10.4 million more votes than Kerry in 2004. The internet built that increase.

And money. Obama, of course, inspired the unprecedented giving of money and volunteer time. Especially money. $533 million worth. In 2004, Bush’s 62 million votes came from raising $367 million, or $5.92 a vote (Bush, unlike Obama, observed federal campaign spending limits). In 2008, Obama won 12% more votes than Bush while raising 45% more money than Bush. Obama spent $1.47 more a vote—25% more for each vote—than Bush. Looked at another way, however, if Obama reached Bush’s 62 million votes by just matching Bush’s $5.92 a vote, he still had a whopping $22.38 per vote left over to “gain” each new vote beyond 62 million.

Also, please remember: 3/4ths of Obama’s money came from those who gave over $200—not your typical student donation.

McCain spent less in 2008 than Bush did in 2004, paid less per vote than Bush, and received 97% of Bush’s 2004 vote—at 60 million, the highest vote total ever for a loser. So McCain largely held onto the GOP base, while Obama reached new voters.

Obama inspired giving; his effective organizing brought the money home. And yes, money still isthe mother’s milk of politics.”

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