Clinton 44

Dick Morris knows Hillary Clinton very well from the days when he was her husband’s most important political advisor. He argues here that Clinton is likely to be our next president. Excerpts:

The last time a Democratic frontrunner failed to win his party's nomination was 1972. . . She still controls most of the money and has the backing of the ex-officio delegates who she has bought and paid for by distributing more than $50 million in donations to their campaigns. And her main opponents - Gore, Kerry, John Edwards and Joe Biden - have one thing in common: They've all run for president and lost . . .

And, if she wins the nomination, she'll likely win in November.

The Republican Party and President Bush are sinking rapidly in popularity. . . And Hillary still has a secret weapon: The likely increase in voter turnout among single women, which her candidacy is certain to attract.

Half of all women in the United States are single, and they voted for Kerry in 2004 by a margin of 25 points. But their turnout was only 59 percent, about 10 points below married white men or women. . . If Hillary runs, she will bring out single women in unheard of numbers. Likely, she will increase their turnout by about 6 to 7 million votes.

Those extra votes will be hard to offset. White men and married white women are already pretty well maxed out in their turnout. There were not a lot of Bush voters who stayed home in 2004. And very few Kerry voters will back the Republican in 2008.

Hillary will also significantly increase black turnout (African-Americans like her much more than they liked Kerry or Gore) and will also attract more Hispanics to the polls (she got almost 80 percent of New York Puerto Ricans in her first race for Senate).

Hillary will not so much win more support from the electorate that turned out in 2004 as she will expand the electorate in ways that the Republicans cannot hope to match.