1. Iraq is too immature to be a democracy.India proved sixty years ago that a multicultural, poor country can become democratic.
2. Iraq is entirely separate from the war on Islamic Extremism.
The Islamic extremist war against the West has two major camps—Shia Iran and al-Qaeda. Both gain from a U.S. defeat in Iraq.
3. We’ve been in Iraq too long—World War II lasted less than 4 years.
More Americans died in the first month of World War II than have died in Iraq so far. It’s ethnocentric to say World War II began in December 1941. Japan invaded China in 1937.
4. We can’t afford the cost of Iraq.
Military spending during Vietnam was 9.2% of GDP, and was 6.2% during the Reagan era military build-up. It’s currently at 4% of GDP.
5. Too many Americans have died in Iraq.
American combat deaths in Iraq have averaged 2 a day each year of the war. In Vietnam’s fourth year, American combat deaths averaged 38 a day.
6. The American people voted to get out of Iraq.
American failures in Iraq and Republican corruption, symbolized by the Mark Foley scandal which Democrats knew about in advance but held for the election, accounted for the Democrats’ victory in November. Given a choice between staying to win in Iraq or leaving without winning, the American people remain divided.
7. Bush lied about WMD.
Saddam’s own people, even Saddam himself, thought Iraq had WMD. Saddam had WMD before, had used them, and was obstructing UN inspectors at every turn.
8. Bush lied about Iraq seeking yellowcake from Niger.
Ex-Ambassador Joe Wilson reported that Iraq was trying to get yellowcake from Niger, then lied about his findings in an effort to damage Bush politically. Wilson worked for Kerry during the 2004 election.
9. Bush lied about al-Qaeda in Iraq.
As Christ said, “The enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Because Saddam so hated the U.S., al-Qaeda’s 9.11 success threatened to bring these two U.S. enemies together. Saddam’s wealth and pursuit of WMD made Iraq a particularly dangerous base for al-Qaeda attacks on the U.S.
10. Bush won’t listen to his military advisors.
The U.S. military is no monolith. Some criticize Bush for putting too much faith in military advice. Presidents have to fire generals who fail.
11. Our record in Iraq is one of continuous failure.
The initial war succeeded. Iraq held three successful elections and formed a unity government. Most provinces are free of the insurgency. Al-Qaeda insurgents succeeded in generating a vicious cycle of sectarian violence in Baghdad by destroying a year ago the Shiites’ most holy Golden Mosque of Samarra.
12. We should negotiate with Syria and Iran, because they share our interest in avoiding an Iraqi civil war.
Syria and Iran share an interest in seeing the U.S. out of Iraq. Negotiating with them would be like negotiating with North Vietnam to end our involvement in that conflict. It’s called surrender.
13. We needn’t worry about Iran annexing Iraq. Ahmadinejhad has such a weak hold on power that Western economic pressure will bring him down.
The ayatollahs who are Iran’s true rulers seem quite pleased with Ahmadinejhad’s aggressive, anti-Western actions.
2 comments:
This is one of the best articles I have read on Iraq; it made me to rethink some of my own assumptions and myths about Iraq.
Cherrs,
middleXeast
Here are some more:
We will be greeted as liberators, which will make our task, creating a liberal democratic Iraq which will be an attractive example for other repressive Arab state, much easier.
The war will cost a few billion, be over in a heartbeat and can be waged with about 130,000 troops which we are putting in.
There will be no need for an elaborate reconstruction program, nor do we need to focus on civil disorder in the immediate aftermath, cuz wars are untidy by definition.
My take on your examples:
1) Of course India was successful, but is it analogous? I think even you know the answer to that.
2) Iraq may not be now, but it arguably was before we invaded. A pity.
3) Maybe we have been there too long.
5) I am reminded of a response by Harry Truman who, when asked when unemployment was a problem, replied that it was when you did not have a job. It is not absolute numbers but cost benefit, and who is doing the dying.
7) There were solid, good reasons to suspect/kow that Iraq did not have WMD. The decision for was predated all of that, WMD was a "streetcar" in the immortal justification of George MacBundy, and any god would have done.
10) Oh, he probably does. He certainly listened to Shinseki, and then fired him.
11) War is an extension of politics, we have failed in our political objectives thus far. We won a couple of battles, no more. Maybe we will win some more but the political outcome looks very unpromising. To say that it was Al-Qaeda generated sectarian violence is to casually overlook the course of modern Iraqi history, which suggests that sectarian violence would have flared even in the absence of AQ efforts.
13) On the contrary, we should worry. One of the inescaple conclusions of the Iraqi war thus far is that Iran has been one of the victors. Talk about the paradox of unintended consequencesc . . . .
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