Certainly article author Matthew Continetti paints a sobering picture of how bad it looks for the GOP:
Today Bush Republicanism is on its way out. The most successful GOP governors--Arnold Schwarzenegger in California, Rick Perry in Texas, Charlie Crist in Florida. . . emphasize certain conservative policies--low taxes most of all--but dismiss others. Meanwhile, in Washington policy circles, wonks and flacks are busy sketching out an alternative Republican agenda that combines social conservatism with an active government tailoring economic policies to help working families. [It all fits] Pawlenty's slogan--"The party of Sam's Club”. . .
Behind all this new thinking lies a political reality. Independents are moving rapidly away from the Republican party. According to the National Exit Poll, Republicans lost independent voters by a staggering 18 points in 2006. A recent Pew survey reveals Democrats have a 15-point advantage over Republicans when voters are asked the party with which they identify.
Nowhere is the Democratic advantage more clear than with voters 18 to 29 years old. . . After more than a decade of mirroring general electoral trends. . . the youth vote has veered left. In 2004, 18- to 29-year-olds went Democratic 54 percent to 45 percent. In the 2006 congressional elections, these voters went Democratic 60 percent to 38 percent, making them one of the most Democratic groups in the country--voting for the donkey at about the same levels as union members. If this youthful cohort continues to vote in similar ways as it grows older, the GOP is in serious trouble.
In trouble indeed. People who sell beer and cosmetics say folks tend to stick with their youthful choices. Maybe if younger voters shop at Sam's Club for lower prices on their Coors or Cover Girl, Republicans have a chance.
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