Wednesday, July 18, 2007

A Middle East “Might Have Been”


History is an argument without end.

--Arthur Schlesinger, Jr.


HDS Greenway has a Boston Globe column offering an historical analogy for Iraq that may say more than Greenway meant to say. Greenway writes, “As Washington struggles with what to do with a lost war, consider the British experience in Palestine and their 30-year mandate after World War I.” Greenway perceptively adds:

 Britain, "with its technological and military superiority . . . its entrepreneurial and missionary zeal, its largely democratic institutions, was to take the once-great peoples of the East into tutelage and direct their slow but sure progress under stable and just government," A.J. Sherman recalls in his book, "Mandate Days." "This clashed almost immediately with the reality of Palestine."

 the British genuinely hoped for national reconciliation and peace in Palestine between Jews and Arabs. But as Tom Segev writes in "One Palestine Complete," "the government expected the army to impose peace between the Jews and the Arabs, as a result of which it had to fight both of them."

 When Arabs and Jews weren't fighting each other they attacked the British, who were blown up in terrorist attacks, their soldiers kidnapped and killed. When they weren't surging, they holed up in Green Zone-like enclaves called "Bevingads," after Foreign Minister Ernest Bevin. "Security continued to erode despite the presence of over 100,000 troops," Sherman writes. "The sense of constant menace (was) heightened by the ubiquitous roadside mines, against which no British vehicle could be adequately armored."

 Britain feared the chaos that would follow a retreat. But after 30 years of trying to engineer compromise, the British left with their tails between their legs when support on the home front collapsed. Once they were gone, the feared upsurge of bloodshed between Arabs and Jews was realized, and the nightmare of outside intervention from neighboring states came to pass.

Comment: To Greenway, the British were fools to get between two sides that valued victory above peace. Greenway is saying the U.S. in Iraq is similarly stupid to “force compromise on combatants who have no interest in compromise.”

I buy Greenway’s analogy but take exception to his conclusion. The Arab-Israeli conflict has been a disaster for world peace over the 59 years since Britain “bugged out.” The conflict bedevils the world today, and arguably mothered the Islamic extremism that currently darkens civilization’s otherwise-bright future. Had Britain not crumbled in the face of homefront impatience with its Palestine peacekeeping, and had it instead presided over a partition acceptable to both sides (yielding a smaller Israel), the oil-rich Middle East might have become peaceful and prosperous.

History’s argument goes on.

2 comments:

Derek said...

Hi Dad,

Looking over your recent posts. I'm trying to understand how, exactly, you propose to prevent our "bugging out" of Iraq. The President has had more time to accomplish his - initially quite limited, but ever-creeping - goals in Iraq than it took the US to enter & win either of the World Wars.

It is simply not true that the stakes here are as high as in those conflicts. 70% of the US public, and 80% of the Iraqi public, are in favor of immediate withdrawal. Short of a military coup which brings the US a nice hard-line dictatorship to protect us from all the Islamo-fascists who mean us such harm, how else do you envision this story playing out?

The President and his supporters - including you - have had your chance. The politics is all over now, with present maneuverings merely endgame. The death and suffering, of course, will go on for quite some time - ultimately, that will be the Bush Legacy.

Aloha,
Derek

Galen Fox said...

Hi Derek, thanks for the comment. Let me respond line by line.

Derek: “Looking over your recent posts. I'm trying to understand how, exactly, you propose to prevent our "bugging out" of Iraq.”

Win a presidential election in 2008 on the issue of fighting Islamic extremism. Hold on in Iraq, using President’s veto power, until then. Charles Krauthammer said today on Brit Hume’s “Special Report” that Dem. Leader Reid “wants the war, wants the issue, doesn’t want to stop it.” Krauthammer says if Reid really wanted to stop the war, he would negotiate a controlled withdrawal with moderate Republicans. But he would rather hang the moderate Republicans out to dry so that they (many are up for re-electionin 2008) lose their senate seats and Reid strengthens his majority. Also, as David Ignatius has suggested, too quick an Iraq exit could blow up in Democrats’ faces before November 2008 if a bloodbath follows any too-quick withdrawal. So politically, I believe it’s possible we’ll end up giving the surge time to work.

Derek: “The President has had more time to accomplish his - initially quite limited, but ever-creeping - goals in Iraq than it took the US to enter/win either of the World Wars.”

We obviously entered World War I at the end. We were slightly behind the rush of German troops from the collapsed Eastern front (where Lenin negotiated a surrender) to the Western trenches, and our 1918 arrival turned the tide to victory. Relevance to Iraq?

World War II, for us non-Eurocentric people, began in Manchuria in 1931 and lasted for nearly 14 years. By the time Pearl Harbor drew us in, Japan was deep into China and in serious difficulty.

Derek: “It is simply not true that the stakes here are as high as in those conflicts.”

How do I deal with “simply not true”? Similar to the fight against Fascism in the 1930’s, we are at war with a completely ruthless opponent who intends to do us in. We have already come under direct attack, one causing more deaths than Pearl Harbor. In the 1930’s, strong pacifist sentiments in the West prevented us from taking Fascism seriously. To our later regret.

Derek: “70% of the US public, and 80% of the Iraqi public, are in favor of immediate withdrawal.”

US: In the latest (mid-July) FOX/Opinion Dynamics poll, 61% of Americans want us out of Iraq by April 2008. Yet in the same poll, 64% of respondents said we should wait until Petraeus reports in September before making our decision on what to do next.

Iraq: In a March ABC News/USA Today poll, 78% of Iraqis strongly to somewhat opposed the presence of coalition troops in their country. That percentage included 97% of Sunnis. On July 19, the U.S. ambassador told Congress in public testimony that Sunnis are petrified the U.S. is going to pull out and leave them at the mercy of the Shia majority. I believe the ambassador correctly reflects current, post-Anbar turnaround, Sunni thinking. Kurds (75%) want us to stay as well. The Shia are quite willing to take their chances with the U.S. gone.

Derek: “Short of a military coup which brings the US a nice hard-line dictatorship to protect us from all the Islamo-fascists who mean us such harm, how else do you envision this story playing out?”

The U.S. elects its president every four years, and congress every two years. We don’t run a democracy based upon weekly polls. Until your side wins, you haven’t won.

Derek: “The President and his supporters - including you - have had your chance. The politics is all over now, with present maneuverings merely endgame.”

I hope it isn’t over. In Vietnam, Congress pulled the rug out from under the U.S. military in 1974, in spite of the fact that U.S. air power and smart weapons had turned back a North Vietnamese invasion across the DMZ 18 months earlier. Also in Vietnam, it took the military time to get it right, but under Creighton Abrams, who followed the disastrous William Westmorland, we were able to get most of the South Vietnamese population under South Vietnamese control by 1972. Militarily, we had reached a stand-off. Politically, we lost. I’m hoping history doesn’t repeat itself. This time, the enemy doesn’t have nationalism on its side.