Tough Man, Tougher Job

Dennis Ross is the person to listen to when it comes to Israel and Palestine. He has some advice for new Middle East envoy Tony Blair, who is taking the job Ross once had to try and put together an Israeli peace settlement. Whatever Ross may think about the need to return to Israel’s 1967 borders, his advice for Blair is about what Blair needs to do now, if peace is to have any chance.

Ross’s key points:

• Blair has to find a way to get Fatah to reform itself so that it can compete effectively with Hamas. Pressing Mahmoud Abbas to take on the Fatah old guard is essential but goes against Abbas's very nature. If Abbas won’t side with those who truly want to remake Fatah and reform it, it won't matter how much money goes to Fatah.

• Blair must be able to deal directly with the younger members of Fatah who are prepared to operate at the grassroots level, and who demonstrate their ability to deliver services if provided the means.

• Blair must have a strategy for Gaza. Blair must show he is not disregarding Gaza; he will need to ensure ongoing humanitarian assistance even while shaping an international consensus that developmental help will not flow to Gaza unless Hamas is willing to play by the rules. There is leverage—Hamas needs to show that it can govern and will need real help from the outside to do so.

• As important as it is for Blair to apply leverage on the Fatah old guard and on Hamas, this will matter little if he cannot ease travel restrictions for Palestinians throughout the West Bank. This, as much as anything, will signal that life and commerce may be normalized. Israeli security forces will resist any meaningful change without some demonstration of Fatah's capability and performance.

These points represent gigantic challenges. Challenges big enough that Blair may soon be longing for his old life as the hounded prime minister who took Britain into Iraq.