February 2008

We are less than six months from the start of the longest ever general election campaign. After Super Tuesday February 5, America should know both parties’ candidates; the two who will fight it out over the subsequent nine months.

It looks to be an uneven battle. This blog’s past few posts reviewed evidence Democrats are likely to win:

1. The Iraq war and Katrina have cost Bush and Republicans the competency issue. GOP guru Karl Rove himself said Republicans are hurting with independents and Hispanics.

2. Democrats have a big fundraising lead.

3. The media are extraordinarily determined to bring the GOP down.

4. Polls document strong voter preference for Democrats over Republicans.

5. The strongest GOP pair of Giuliani and Fred Thompson doesn’t begin to match up to Clinton-Obama. The first Italian-American president lacks the pizzazz of either the first woman or the first black.

Six months from the beginning of the general election campaign, our baseline projection remains Clinton-Obama in 2008. We’ll concentrate on evidence that moves the baseline in some new direction.