Tuesday, October 02, 2007

An Excellent Month in Iraq


Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 75
September: 38

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.10 (Revised downward, 1/07)
actual: 2.33 (9/07)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,975 (9/07)

Since our last monthly report, the American KIA total dropped from August's 52 down to 38. That KIA total is the lowest since March 2006, which was just after al Qaeda's destruction of the Samarra mosque triggered the sharp upturn in sectarian violence from which we are only now recovering. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] We are a long way down from May's total of 117 KIA, concrete evidence the surge is working.

Oil output is up sharply to its highest daily output in a year, well above the target level of 2.1 million barrels a day. And the figure for electricity output is even better--4,975 megawatts is the highest monthly average the Iraq Index has ever recorded.

In the 18 months we have been summarizing O'Hanlon's report, there has never been a month anywhere near as good as September 2007. Let's hope the good news continues to build, and that it affects Iraq's political situation as well.

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