Twenty Days to Super Tuesday: Democrats

The Economist’s “Lexington” did write about how Democrats handicapped themselves by neglecting the “middle America” that saw the ‘60s as a national nightmare. But Lexington went on to say why Democrats by 2008 have overcome that handicap, and stand poised to recapture the White House in November—even with Clinton leading the party. Three reasons:

1. the Democratic Party has replaced cultural liberalism with a deliberate cultural conservatism (avoiding debating the death penalty and gun control), with Clinton supporting a flag-burning ban, and Obama favoring big military budget increases.

2. Nixon's strategy of defending the moral majority against the cultural elites is running out of steam, now that Republican candidates have had their fair share of divorces. Also, old-fashioned economic populism, rather than Nixon-style cultural populism, is catching fire across both parties.

3. for all the endless comparisons between Vietnam and Iraq, students are more worried about getting good jobs than changing the system. The counter-culture long ago made its peace with capitalism. Moreover, race relations are utterly transformed, with a thriving black middle class, and with Bush 43 having made a black woman who grew up in the segregated South his secretary of state.

Yet the economy offers the biggest reason why Democrats are likely to prevail.