Thursday, August 07, 2008

Monthly Iraq Index Obsolete?

Our latest monthly highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution, shows evidence that Iraq's level of violence has subsided to the point where U.S. forces are hardly waging a war. If violence returns, we will resume tracking it. For now, and one hopes forever, a monthly Iraq Index report seems unnecessary.

The summary for July follows:

Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 63
2008: 26
July: 5

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
1970: 413
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.20 (Revised upward, 1/08)
actual: 2.54 (7/08)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,570 (7/08)

Since our previous monthly report, the monthly American KIA total fell from 19 in June to 5, the lowest count for any month of the Iraq war. More have died on single days earlier in the war. Iraqis, not Americans, are taking the lead in what military combat missions are still underway. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] American combat forces will be leaving Iraq; it's a question of how fast, how soon.

In July, oil output rose from 2.51 to 2.54 million barrels a day, the highest monthly total ever. Revenue from oil exports continues to hit all-time highs, with June's total the highest on record (July's total will grow with later sales figures added). As with oil, output for electricity increased, growing from 4,470 megawatts in June to 4,570 megawatts in July, the fourth highest monthly total ever. Electricity output in the 4,500 megawatt range is significant because Iraq needs 8,500 megawatts to meet its demand, and gets up to 4,500 megawatts from privately-owned generators.

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