Congressional Election Climate Changing

Lydia Saad, writing for the Gallup organization, implies what’s becoming clear for the first time: Democrats are worried about losing congressional seats. Gallup’s latest generic congressional poll of likely voters has Republicans ahead of Democrats 50% to 45%, a margin of 5%. Such a result is unlikely to hold; it’s part of the post-convention bounce Republicans are gaining across the board. But if that 5% margin did hold, Republicans would regain control of congress.

The Pew poll, on the eve of the 2006 congressional elections, had Democrats ahead of Republicans by 8%. In the end, Democrats in 2006 garnered 7% more votes than Republicans across that nation, which led to a 30 seat gain and control of congress. For Democrats to retain their current congressional margin, they should have a generic congressional poll lead of around 8%. A drop below that level suggests Republican congressional gains.

The changed congressional climate is as sudden as Sarah Palin’s rise. Pew and Gallup-USA Today polls over the summer, covering June 18 to August 23, recorded an average 12% margin for Democrats over Republicans in the generic congressional vote. During that same time, Stu Rothenberg was estimating a Democratic gain of 8 seats in the House. Rothenberg’s estimate was in line with the above-mentioned Pew-Gallup polls (which showed Democrats upping their 2006 margin from 8% to 12%). And in line with conventional wisdom that Democrats would gain congressional seats in 2008.

That was then. Now, a new ballgame.