Monday, September 22, 2008

How to Attack McCain’s Foreign Policy: A Debate Preview?

In 1976, Richard Holbrooke was 35, and managing editor of Foreign Policy, the new, edgier, more openly Democratic foreign affairs publication. Holbrooke prepped Jimmy Carter for his foreign policy debate with Gerald Ford, a big task because the ex-Georgia governor had no foreign policy experience, and Ford had been part of Washington since 1948 as a congressman, vice president, and president.

Holbrooke performed his task brilliantly, coaching Carter to attack Ford from the right for being soft on Communism. Carter's opening blast at Ford so unhinged the president that later in the debate, Ford proclaimed—contrary to fact—that Poland and Eastern Europe were not under Soviet domination. Ford’s error cost him the election. Carter rewarded Holbrooke by offering him any sub-Cabinet foreign policy job he wanted (Holbrooke chose East Asian assistant secretary).

In 2008, Obama has Holbrooke on board, late because Holbrooke had been Clinton’s chief foreign policy advisor. Now Holbrooke may well be prepping Obama for Friday’s foreign policy debate, seeking to repeat his 1976 triumph. So what surprise will Holbrooke have for McCain?

A recent Foreign Affairs article (of 8,000 words) suggests Holbrooke may be advising Obama to attack McCain as even more neo- conservative than Bush. Holbrooke also may counsel Obama to switch the conversation to economics, arguing the economy is crucial to a strong foreign policy.

Holbrooke's article included the following points Obama could use against McCain:

 Although the economy is usually treated as a domestic issue, reviving it is as important to the nation's long-term security as is keeping U.S. military strength unchallengeable.

 [On oil,] Obama has a far more comprehensive plan, with an ambitious goal for emissions reduction, a market-based mechanism that has broad support among economists on the left and the right, and substantially greater investments than McCain's plan in technologies that will help achieve these goals. McCain stresses . . .offshore drilling. This is hardly a serious long-term solution. . .

 [The U.S. and China should develop] joint projects on energy-saving, climate-change-friendly technology [to] increase. . .energy efficiency and [reduce] carbon emissions in both countries. . . carbon capture to clean coal. . .

 McCain's . . . vague "League of Democracies" . . . sounds like an expansion of an organization, the Community of Democracies, created by former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright that still exists . . . [And w]hatever McCain says, his "League," unlike the forum created by Albright, would be viewed by everyone as an attempt to create a rival to the UN. . . not even the United States' closest allies -- let alone . . .India -- would support a new organization with such a mandate.

 [Bush let] Hamas, the terrorist organization, run in the 2006 Palestinian elections, with disastrous results, while backing away from democracy promotion in Egypt.

 The [new] president should . . . tackle. . .the arc of crisis that directly threatens the United States' national security -- Turkey, Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan.

 [To help in this area, issue] a clear official ban on torture and clos[e] the detention facility at Guantánamo Bay, Cuba, which now holds only 260 prisoners. . . Obama supported, and McCain opposed, an important statutory requirement to hold the CIA to the same standards for interrogation as the military, as mandated in the U.S. Army Field Manual.

 McCain supports or takes harder-line positions than the Bush administration. . . it is impossible to ignore the many striking parallels between him and the so-called neoconservatives . . .

 McCain[‘s] position on Iran. . . is tougher than that of the Bush administration. . . ("Bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb, bomb Iran," he once sang at a public rally). Coupled with his criticism of the Bush administration's deal with North Korea and his call to throw Russia out of the G-8, his position suggests a deep, visceral aversion to talking . . . skepticism of diplomacy as a frontline weapon in the United States' national security arsenal. . . Obama's closer to the traditional default position of almost everyone [including] loyal pro-McCain Republicans, such as James Baker, Robert Gates (before he became secretary of defense), Henry Kissinger, and Brent Scowcroft. . . [Talking to Iran] would strengthen the United States' position . . . with other Muslim states, regardless of its outcome.

 the toughest [Afghanistan-related] challenge is the insurgent sanctuaries . . . of western Pakistan. . . which can destabilize Afghanistan at will -- and has. . . Nothing -- not even Iraq -- represents a greater policy failure for the outgoing administration.

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