Bête Noire

Democrats won their last three election election victories by demonizing individual Republicans—Newt Gingrich (1998 mid-term) and George Bush (2006 mid-term, 2008). Earlier this year, they began the same tactic, going this time after Rush Limbaugh, when polls showed how unpopular Rush was with independents. But Limbaugh may not be such a good fit. He’s a commentator, not an elected Republican, and anyway Dick Cheney, Bush’s unpopular vice president, seems to have forced himself back into the public eye, much to Democrats’ delight. Re-demonize Cheney, or Bush-Cheney. Forget about Rush.

While that might help Democrats in 2010, a sign of trouble with the strategy emerges from a recent Gallup Poll [see chart]. Cheney’s not very popular, that’s true, getting only a 37% favorable rating from independents. But the real bête noire showing up in Gallup’s results is Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, who has only a 25% favorable rating from independents, and whose 52% negative rating among independents is even higher than Cheney’s. Pelosi holds the same office now that Gingrich occupied in 1998, going into that year’s mid-term loss for the GOP.

16 months out, Pelosi seems the bête noire Republicans have hoped for, someone who could help turn the tables on Democrats.