Pew: Americans Remain Moderate/Conservative

In 2005, just after the 2004 election, Pew did a study of the American electorate that focused on the role of religion in politics. It found, as we noted in an early blog entry, that for about half of Americans, religion played an important role in their decisionmaking.

This Spring, Pew has completed another detailed look at the American electorate. It found that the economy/jobs is now the top issue for 50% of respondents, replacing moral values, which 27% of voters identified as their top issue in 2004 (“moral values” is now down to just 10%).

The issue shift from moral values to the economy coincides with the sharp drop in voter identification with the Republican Party from 30% in 2004 to only 23% today, and the commensurate rise from 30% to 36% of those identifying as independents (and that's up to 39% in April, the last month polled). Independents are at their highest level since independent Ross Perot was riding high in 1992 (Democratic support has remained relatively constant, rising from 33% to just 35% in five years).

While Gallup polling, in the several studies we looked at earlier, forced independents to identify themselves as “leaning” Democrat or Republican (Democrats won, 53% to 39%), Pew chose instead to focus on independents as the swing group, and measure their views. Pew's approach makes sense. The GOP brand this spring, after all, was in such low repute that many independents for that reason alone would identify themselves as “leaning” Democrat, not Republican.

In any case, Pew’s major discovery is that overall, conservatives outnumber liberals 37% to 19%, virtually unchanged from 2000’s 35% to 18%. Among independents, the conservative:liberal ratio is exactly 2:1, with 50% calling themselves moderate. It’s a surprising finding, given the liberal thrust Obama’s election seemed to proclaim. The country remains moderate, and twice as conservative as liberal.

Here are other key findings from Pew’s exhaustive look at today’s American voter:

➢ Independent willingness to endure higher prices to protect the environment is down 17% from 66% in 2007 to 49% today.

➢ Independent willingness to slow growth or lose jobs to protect the environment is down 19% from 72% in 2007 to 53% today.

➢ Independent willingness to go into debt to help the needy is down 14% from 57% in 2007 to 43% today.

➢ 61% of independents believe something run by government is likely to be wasteful or inefficient.

➢ 57% of independents say government has too much control over our daily lives.

➢ 55% of independents say government regulation of business does more harm than good.

➢ 53% of independents believe labor unions are necessary to protect workers (versus 80% of Democrats; 44% of Republicans).

➢ 77% of independents favor more restrictive control of immigration.

➢ 67% of independents favor offshore drilling.

➢ 50% of independents favor nuclear power.

➢ 55% of independents oppose same-sex marriage, but 55% favor civil unions.

➢ only 32% of independents see society divided between “haves” and “have nots”.

➢ only 29% of independents think success is “beyond our control.”

➢ only 21% of white independents favor preferential treatment of minorities.

➢ 43% of Democrats, 26% of independents, and only 10% of Republicans are nonwhite.

➢ Independents are least likely to “always” vote (43%, versus 62% for Republicans, 56% for Democrats).