Friday, July 03, 2009

Some hope for Republicans?

Gallup provides a lot of information about the two parties in its several polls. Some of it may lift Republican spirits. Gallup asked respondents to provide their “top of the mind” impression of each party, an exercise that again went badly for Republicans, with "favorable” and “for the people/working, middle, lower class” the words most associated with “Democrats” after the #1 word, “liberal.” By contrast, the top words for Republicans were “unfavorable,” followed by “conservative.”

But the details drew out a slight positive for the GOP. The following chart shows words associated with Republicans both in 2005 and today:


There’s a noteworthy drop in words tagging Republicans as a wealthy, uncaring business elite.

Of course, when a respondent simply dismisses the Republican Party with the world “unfavorable,” as happened in the Gallup poll, it’s quite possible that person if pressed would have supplied “rich” or “self-centered”. Yet I think we do have an indication of change between 2005 and 2009, and it's attributable only in part to the fact Republicans no longer seem so high and mighty.

It’s a fact that Democrats today are as much, if not more, the party of rich people. Gallup’s poll suggests that fact is seeping through to the broader electorate.

A final Gallup poll did turn up some unambiguous good news for Republicans:


Respondents during the early months of the Obama administration, therefore, are 7% more likely to consider Democrats “too liberal” than they were before the election. Republicans, by contrast, have seen no change in the share labeling them “too conservative.” As a consequence, Republicans are now 3% less likely to be labeled “too conservative” than Democrats are to be called “too liberal.”

This change, however, may largely be due to rising GOP alarm with Obama. Among independents, there is still greater concern about Republicans being “too conservative” (49%) than about Democrats being “too liberal” (45%).

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