Aaron David Miller calls himself “an advisor to six secretaries of State on Arab-Israeli peace negotiations.” In the LA Times, he has a pessimistic essay on future events in the Middle East. Excerpts follow:
Iran's inclination to meddle — mostly as a way of reminding the Sunni Arab world, Israel and the U.S. that Tehran has cards to play and can inflict pain — will not go away. And ongoing turmoil in Lebanon, Iraq and Gaza will ensure that when Iran next chooses to meddle, it will have fertile ground in which to do so.
Israel's unilateral withdrawal from Lebanon in May 2000 and from Gaza in September 2005 may have benefited Israel politically (both domestically and around the world), but it also emboldened Hezbollah and Hamas. . . [and] is a powerful inspiration to a younger generation of Arabs and Muslims looking for ways to counter their perceived humiliation at the hands of Israel. . .
Unless Israel wins a decisive victory over Hezbollah (which seems increasingly unlikely), it is almost unimaginable that any Israeli government would consider significant unilateral withdrawals from the West Bank in the near future. . .
The power of Hamas and Hezbollah to affect events highlights a trend that has been building in the Arab world for some time. Iraq [too]: Every day, small armed groups challenge the Iraqi central authority and the U.S. with impunity. . . [A]rmed groups with social and economic agendas usurp the power of the state and create their own fiefdoms. Indeed, Hamas actually serves as the state and the opposition.
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