Iraq Security Situation: Bad in Baghdad

Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:

Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)

2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 48
July: 44

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (weekly average)

1965:* 30
1966: 97
1967: 177
1968: 263
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Note please—the Vietnam KIAs are weekly, not monthly, averages.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar: 2.50
Goal: 2.50
actual: 2.22 (7/06)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,500 (7/06)

“Do you think Iraq today is generally headed in the right direction or wrong direction?” (Asked of Iraqis, June 2006)

Right: 41% (up from 30%, March 2006)
Wrong: 30% (down from 52%, March 2006)

July brought a slight deterioration in Iraq’s oil production, while electricity production and U.S. killed in action totals stayed constant. Iraqis polled in June—the month of Zarqawi’s death, Maliki’s completing his cabinet, and Bush’s surprise visit to Baghdad—were understandably more optimistic than in March.

But July was a terrible month for sectarian violence in Iraq and particularly Baghdad, where Maliki had earlier pledged to improve the security situation. We now know that Shiite extremist Muqtada al-Sadr, backed by Iran, is at the center of much of Baghdad’s violence, and that if he is not controlled in the near future, the Iraqi democratic experiment may indeed fail.