Facts on the Ground

“The debacle that is Iraq today has many sources”

--Prof. Andrew J. Bacevich
Boston University (LA Times commentary)

Not a quagmire, not even a fiasco, but a debacle and that’s a fact. We’re only debating the causes.

Here are some facts, as I see them:

1. The future of Iraq as a unified country is very much in doubt.

2. The overthrow of Saddam exposed long-standing fissures within the Iraqi body politic.

3. Iraq, with 115 billion barrels, has the world’s fourth largest oil reserves.

4. The combination of Saddam, militant Sunni Islam, and oil made Iraq the world’s most dangerous country in 2003, when the U.S. liberated Iraq.

5. The world is safer today than it was in 2003, because the U.S. liberated Iraq from Saddam’s totalitarian rule.

6. In 2005, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad became leader of Iran, a Shiite state with the world’s third largest oil reserves (132 b. bbls.).

7. Ahmadinejad’s brand of Shia militancy, his support of terrorism, his threat to destroy Israel, and his drive for nuclear weapons make Iran a most dangerous nation.

8. Muqtada al-Sadr (pictured) is a militant Shiite cleric with his own Mahdi militia armed by Iran, and is the most dangerous part of Iraq's Shiite majority.

9. If we fail to get Sadr under control, Iraq’s Shiite majority and its southern oil fields may end up under Iran’s control.

10. Through a combination of military, economic, and political means, we are striving in Iraq today to control Sadr and the threat he represents.

And another set of facts:

1. Bush timed the Iraq war’s launching according to a political calendar—wanting victory by the 2004 elections, he couldn’t wait until UN weapons inspectors finished their job.

2. Rushing in also meant having too few troops to stamp out a Sunni-led insurgency when it inevitably arose.

3. Bush’s use of a political calendar made the Iraq war political, politically opposed from the outset by the mainstream media (MSM), which is anti-U.S. involvement in war in any case.

4. The MSM cares little about the first set of facts (above); rather it’s focused on whether or not the U.S. should have invaded Iraq at all, and how quickly it can get the U.S. out of Iraq.

5. Because Bush made the Iraq war political, the MSM feels justified in using the Iraq war's lack of success thus far to defeat Republicans in 2006.

After the November elections, those interested in the first set of facts can again concentrate on taking care of Sadr.