Facts on the Ground (Reprise)

[Iraq is] a debacle and that’s a fact. We’re only debating the causes.

--“Facts on the Ground,” 10.17.06

A year ago, I argued that the combination of Saddam, militant Sunni Islam, and the world’s fourth largest oil reserves made Iraq the world’s most dangerous country in 2003, before the U.S. liberated Iraq. A year ago, the future of Iraq as a unified country was very much in doubt. The overthrow of Saddam had exposed long-standing fissures within the Iraqi body politic.

Since then, the U.S. surge has helped increase security for Iraq’s people, particularly in areas formerly controlled or threatened by al-Qaeda in Iraq. Improving security in turn is helping the economy. But Iran’s influence over Iraq’s Shiite majority remains a concern, and includes uncertainty about the power of Muqtada al-Sadr and his Mahdi militia, armed by Iran.

The American media do control our agenda, but in the end, the national debate revolves around actual facts. In the end, no matter the spin, truth emerges. The reason Iraq hurt Bush and Republicans so much is because we were losing there in 2006. And our Iraq difficulties in turn colored how people viewed Republicans, the War on Terror, and the economy. That may change, now that conditions in Iraq are improving.