Succeeding in Iraq

[W]e have certainly been successful in significantly improving the security situation in Iraq, and I would say that what we need to do is continue this effort and ensure that the economic reconstruction and development follows.

--Defense Secretary Robert Gates, November 1, 2007


Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 71
October: 28

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.10 (Revised downward, 1/07)
actual: 2.33 (10/07)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,750 (10/07)

Since our last monthly report, the American KIA total dropped from September's 38 down to 28. That KIA total is the lowest since September 2004, and is the third lowest monthly American KIA total since September 2003. It is also less than one-fourth (23.9%) of May's KIA total of 117. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] More than any other closely-watched data, the sharp drop in American KIA provides concrete evidence the surge is working.

Our other indicators also point to success. Oil output is up to its highest daily total since September 2004, and is the fifth-highest oil daily output average for any month since the war began. Only one month since Saddam's overthrow, September, produced more revenue for Iraq from oil than October. And the figure for electricity output is also excellent--4,750 megawatts is the second highest monthly average the Iraq Index has ever recorded (September's total of 4,860 megawatts was higher).

After two excellent months in Iraq for the three indices we have faithfully followed since early 2006, it's hard to refrain from indeed saying, "We seem to be succeeding."