Iraq Surge Success Continues

Here’s our latest monthly, highly abbreviated version of the Iraq Index, published and updated twice a week by Michael O'Hanlon of the Brookings Institution:



Americans Killed in Action, Iraq (monthly average)
2003: 32
2004: 59
2005: 56
2006: 58
2007: 67
November: 33

Americans Killed in Action, Vietnam (monthly average)
1965: 128*
1966: 420
1967: 767
1968: 1140
1969: 785
____
* = First U.S. combat troops arrived in Vietnam, 5.3.65
Vietnam table compiled by Galen Fox using Defense Department sources.

Crude Oil Production (m. bbls./day)

Prewar Peak: 2.50
Goal: 2.10 (Revised downward, 1/07)
actual: 2.40 (11/07)

Electricity (megawatts)

Prewar: 3,958
Goal: 6,000
actual: 4,120 (11/07)

Since our last monthly report, the American KIA total rose from October's 28 up to 33. Still, that KIA total is, except for last month, the lowest since March 2006, and the recent two-month total of 61 is the lowest bi-monthly American KIA total since February-March 2004. [Please note: the number of KIA is almost always lower than the media-reported total of American deaths, which covers all causes, including non-hostile. Our Iraq and Vietnam figures are KIA only.] American deaths in Iraq are the monthly statistic most closely watched to measure how the war is going.

Our other indicators continue to show success. Oil output is up to its highest daily total since October 2004, and is the fifth-highest oil daily output average for any month since the war began. Once again, revenue from oil exports is the highest ever except for the previous month--a pattern that suggests a month's lag in compiling the revenue total, meaning the November revenue total will be a new Iraq record once we see the first Brookings' report in 2008. Iraq's oil revenue gains are of course helped by record prices for crude on the world market.

As for electricity, here output is down for November--falling to 4,120 megawatts from October's 4,725 megawatts. But electricity usage drops with the temperature. The U.S. interim national target for Iraq is 10-12 hours of electricity a day. Iraq topped that figure in both October and November, the first time that's happened for two months in a row since October-November 2005.

All these measurements portray progress in Iraq.

This blog follows Iraq-related news fairly closely, as does the world. About one-fifth of our blog entries deal with Iraq. Here they all are:

Pew: Public Sees Progress in War Effort (12.2.07)

What’s in the Times’ Washington Bureau Water Cooler? (11.21.07)

Facts on the Ground (Reprise) (11.12.07)

Succeeding in Iraq (11.5.07)

Is War Necessary? (10.30.07)

War: Answering the Euro-Democrats (10.29.07)

In-Your-Face Media Bias (10.8.07)

An Excellent Month in Iraq (10.2.07)

AP Cooks the Books on Iraq (9.10.07)

ABC’s Raddatz Cues Up Reid on How to Blacken Petraeus (9.7.07)

Iraq: KIA Down on Eve of Petraeus Report(9.7.07)

Can Friedman let Iraq go? Maybe not. (8.22.07)

Iraq: American KIA Surpass 9.11 Total (8.4.07)

Quitting the War on Terror (7.14.07)

Quitters (Part II) (7.12.07)

Quitters (Part I) (7.10.07)

Iraq Surge Comes with a Price (7.8.07)

Iraq Death Toll Reaches New High (6.7.07)

Why White House May Cave on Iraq (5.27.07)

Damning Bob Kerrey with Faint Praise (5.27.07)

Thank Heaven for Bob Kerrey (5.22.07)

What to Do About the Islamic Threat (5.9.07)

Iraq Surge Costs American Lives (5.7.07)

Losing Iraq = Bad News for U.S. (5.4.07)

Backlash Times 3 (4.20.07)

Iraq: Light at the end of the tunnel? (4.18.07)

Hope in Iraq (4.17.07)

Al-Qaeda: Bigger than Ever (4.17.07)

Iraq: No Measurable Progress (4.11.07)

Early Stage Iraq Surge Brings Little Change (3.8.07)

Common Myths about Iraq (2.11.07)

Iraq: Oil Production Target Lowered (2.5.07)

The Answer is More Democracy (1.30.07)

Baker-Hamilton Support Iraq Troop Surge (1.30.07)

Iraq War Loss is Democrats’ Gain (1.9.07)

Iraq: Is Winning that Hard? (1.8.07)

Iraq: December a Bad Month; 2006 a Bad Year (1.4.07)

Gore’s Running Mate: More Troops in Iraq (1.3.07)

Hey, Look, Patton! (12.12.07)

Do We Need to Win? (12.10.06)

Iraq: November better for Americans (12.5.06)

Uncle Sadr (11.29.06)

If Iraq is Vietnam, Where is Uncle Ho? (11.27.06)

Media on Iraq: Losing is Winning (11.21.06)

Iraq: Worst Month in Years (11.7.06)

For all Iraq items posted before November 2006, go here.